It seems, the consistent electoral debacles, the deepening ill-fame of the Manmohan Singh led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, and the recent poll humiliations in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi have drained the grand old party of India totally, squeezing and diluting its grey-matter.
Had it not been so, the party would not have decided to take this risk. It is beyond the rational political thinking of the day that what pushed the Congress strategists to go with it. But let’s give it a try.
The strategists might have thought that AAP would not be able to run the government effectively and would fail miserably in fulfilling the promises it had made to the electorate. They might have thought an inexperienced government burdened with extremely demanding expectations would give more than enough calls to look good while pulling out the support and bringing down the government.
Suppose that happens. What would happen then?
Now, if this ‘pulling out’ game happens just in time to let Delhi have repoll with the Lok Sabha elections (that could be one of the possibilities Congress strategists would be ‘staring’ at), then the electoral arena would be open to be exploited again.
But that would not help Congress. The mileage would go to BJP. And it is ridiculous if Congress strategists cannot see this point. A negative performance by AAP would help BJP and not Congress in Delhi as the party will have an opportunity to couple its ‘high moral stand’ ground with the Modi-factor in the backdrop of the huge anti-incumbency against the UPA government.
It is to be seen BJP is the winner of Delhi assembly polls, in terms of number of seats and the vote share. And it is well known that there was no morality involved when the party decided to bequeath its claim of forming the government in Delhi.
But a failing AAP will give the BJP decision of not forming the government a moralistic hue then and will naturally push the public to the BJP fold.
But, there is a ‘but’ involved that may also spoil the BJP’s chessboard.
If AAP can perform on the major promises of power and water tariffs and VIP culture in Delhi in the two and half months available, it will effectively make the Congress party dormant in Delhi for a long time and will force BJP to reorganize and relook on its strategy if the party has to form the next government in Delhi after the Arvind Kejriwal led AAP government that is expected to take oath on December 26.
Any which way, the Congress party is poised to come out to be the biggest loser. A performing AAP government would not let it score any point as Arvind Kejriwal has not asked for the support but a failing AAP government would give BJP an opportunity to hit directly and bluntly at Congress blaming it for pushing Delhi to the days of uncertainty and political chaos.
And what would the ‘old and new’ strategists of the grand old party of India do when the AAP government, as promised, starts probing the corruption cases against Congress leaders, and ‘possibly jailing’ them?
Certainly, as universally known about the character of the Congress party, they will pull the plug immediately, giving yet another solid reason to AAP to play the Good Samaritan on the political block.
So, we come back to the question again where we had begun – what made the Congress strategists to decide on supporting AAP to form the government in Delhi?
©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/