After Crimea has fallen: why Crimea and what next for Putin? – One of the most discussed issues of the global geopolitics these days – haunting the world leaders led by Barack Obama – and the analysts and experts!
While President Obama insisted again on Tuesday that the West would not recognize the annexation of Crimea, officials in the United States and Europe have privately concluded that Crimea is lost and that the real challenge is stopping Russia from further destabilizing Ukraine. – The New York Time, March 25, 2014
The global news media is full of such reports and analyses on the issue.
And every one realises the futility of the global response in the matter with ineffective steps like ‘kicking’ Russia out of the G8.
There has not been consensus on what should be the course of action. A military action was talked just in coded words, an option that never existed.
The most talked about option is (and was) placing economic sanctions given the Russia’s dependence on oil exports. But even here, the EU is (and was) not in favour of putting curbs on Russia’s oil exports as it depends largely on it for its energy needs.
Any economic sanction on Russia minus the measures to control the Russian energy flow out of its territories to Europe and Asia would be a damp squib. And exactly that happened.
And political and social sanctions have never deterred dictators history has shown us. They, instead, enjoy this isolation of the masses, something that enhances the efficiency of their propaganda machinery manifold.
Why Putinism can feel emboldened to spread beyond its Crimean coup has a valid rationale in the way the global community including its lone superpower and other major powers let Mr. Vladimir Putin annex Crimea. This bloodless coup is the perfect example of how spineless the global response can be as we have increasingly seen in recent days – be it in Syria or Bahrain or now in Crimea.
Vladimir Putin was already the ironman of Russia keeping the Russian voice firmly under his grip. Now, that he has virtually decimated every opposition in Russia after his latest stint as the Russian President that began in May 2012, extending his 12 years rule for another 6 years, he is looking for more, it seems.
Since the Year 2000 – it has been so, for the Russians ever since the world’s largest nation (geographically) came to know the President Putin and ever since 2008 when the Russians came to know that Mr. Putin planned to stay perpetually at the top of Russian politics and Russians’ lives.
After effectively routing the justified voices of dissent inside Russia, Putin emerged stronger and the dictator in him might have thought of raising its already fully expanded hood – going beyond Russia, in the name of the Russian pride (with USSR undercurrents) – after all, ultra-nationalism has been a proven tool of dictators to co-opt and buy out the dissenting voices back home.
Yes, there was opposition but he has effectively silenced them. Now he would be looking to consolidate it even further.
Russia saw some huge mass mobilizations against the latest bid of Presidency by Putin that he quelled using a mix of forces that left a deep undercurrent against him in the Russians’ psyche who were aspiring for change. Now, Crimea has given him the chance to win over even this. And he looks getting an upper edge here.
The Crimea trophy has increased his popularity like any thing making the life of his opponents, who still dare to take on him calling for political reforms and steps to introduce true democracies, very, very miserable.
The imperialist act of Putin in Crimea in the name of Russian nationalism has taken his popularity rating to over 70 percent, highest since he returned as the President in 2012.
Though we cannot say that the imperialist in Vladimir Putin is on the verge of getting maniacal, his twisted mind may be working on something like that, as the reports of his further interest in Ukraine say.
Russia, under Putin, has been adopting anti-global community view in cases of dictators. Its latest burning example is Syria. In the name of diplomacy and talks, he helped Bashar al-Assad continue with his repressive regime.
And like a seasoning dictator in the age of global economy, where Russia’s internal prosperity depends much on its oil and gas exports, the Putinims is getting more and more convoluted. He chose to expel his arch rival in the name of amnesty by releasing him from prison, a well thought propaganda exercise to show his ‘good human being’ side to world before the Sochi Winter Olympics. Otherwise the power Putin enjoys could have got Mikhail Khodorkovsky easily disappeared.
And this convoluted Putin is dangerous for humanity. He may be friendly for many countries including India, militarily and economically, but a dictator is always a mercenary for the humanity.
©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/