There have been more than enough incidents to give the political opposition ammunition to portray the BJP as an anti-Dalit party but what is interesting is how it is going to play out in Uttar Pradesh.

In the prevailing political circumstances, we can safely say that Uttar Pradesh is going to see a dual battle again, as usual, between the two main political parties of the state – the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) – as the Congress is effectively out – and the BJP has lost the opportunity – though both of these parties will not leave any stone unturned in campaigning and canvassing.

That would add more colour to the atmosphere as the days to the upcoming assembly polls approach near.

But the core battle would be between the SP and the BSP only. And the BSP has clear edge this time – with caste equations, social engineering and anti-incumbency against the Akhilesh Yadav led SP government of Uttar Pradesh – slated to play out well for her.

Any development on the caste equation scenario, anything that would help Mayawati’s social engineering formula, that is going to be Dalit+Muslim combination this time, would hurt the SP more than the BJP.

If the BJP is facing the heat on the reports of anti-Dalit acts in the BJP ruled states and by the BJP leaders, Mayawati is going to be its beneficiary in the UP’s electoral politics, especially after a senior BJP leader of Uttar Pradesh compared Mayawati with prostitute. Initially Mayawati dismissed the issue but soon started ratcheting up her pitch terming it the attack on the Dalit identity. The senior BSP strategists would have advised Mayawati the Dalit politics potential of the issue after she initially dismissed it. That’s why we saw a changed Mayawati when the Rajya Sabha decided to debate the issue later in the day.

She was roaring. And she has kept roaring. Even if there have been clear debacles after the abusive behaviour of her party leaders came out in open who used derogatory language against women family members of Daya Shankar Singh, the expelled BJP leader who had used derogatory remarks against Mayawati and who is now on the run.

Even if Mayawati was forced to cancel his party’s statewide protests tomorrow, there was no sign that Mayawati was going to leave the issue. She, in fact, defended the language used by her party members.

Because she knows what she can get by playing the victim card to the hilt – consolidation of the Dalit voters behind her – something that the SP would like to scuttle at any cost.

To continue..