THE MAJOR FACTORS BEHIND CLEAR MANDATE TO BJP

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

— Narendra Modi was the only declared prime-ministerial nominee in the fray.

— Narendra Modi swept the country with an effective campaign using traditional media, social media and high-end technology tools like the 3D holographic projection.

— Aided by the inefficiency of the INC campaign, Modi customized his speeches according to the place, mood and recent political developments and it connected well with the audiences.

— The massive anti-incumbency against the Congress-led UPA government wiping the good name and good works of Manmohan Singh earned during his first term as the prime minister from 2004 to 2009.

— Narendra Modi has had a successful development track record behind him to claim when he joins the prime minister’s office to govern the nation. In spite of all the criticisms by his opponents, his Gujarat model has indeed been a successful model and it has find good enough number of takers in the country.

— If Hindus across the caste lines identify with any single leader today, it is Narendra Modi. Whatever is the reaction now, but his Hindu hardliner image and allegations of being communal with a proven development track record ensuring development of all sections of the society have made him acceptable to every section of the Hindu community.

— Majority of the young Indians, including the 150 million first time voters, out of the total electorate of around 800 million, aspiring for a better life, and having heard the tales of the Gujarat model, voted for him.

— The majority of the ever growing count of the Indian middle class, over 150 million by the estimates, preferred to vote against the policies of the UPA government that are seen as hostile to the middle class interests.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

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CLEAR MANDATE TO THE BJP IS A WARNING TO NARENDRA MODI

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

Clear mandate to the BJP is a warning to Narendra Modi. Perform or perish after 5 years. Shape in or be thrown out.

Yes, that is the clear writing on the wall.

If it is the matter of jubilation for the BJP, it is also a healing sign from the Indian electorate as well, that it is taking well informed decisions beyond the worn-out lines of caste, community and regionalism.

And this healing sign is what the BJP needs to keep in mind while governing the country for the next 5 years.

The clear mandate overwriting the proponents of the day of the coalition politics in India says Indians are willing to give a decisive mandate so as to bypass the hurdles that a coalition alliance presents, as we have seen in the last two decades of the coalition politics at the Union level in India, to take India back on the path of high growth that it looked set to be on when the last decade began.

The youth forming the decisive chunk of the Indian electorate that really votes has voted Narendra Modi and the BJP in.

The burgeoning middle class that had grown apathetic because of its neglect during the run of the politics of different votebanks where it did not figure in the scheme of the things has voted Narendra Modi and the BJP in.

And if the BJP has the clear majority today, it is because these segments voted for Narendra Modi, for his development track record.

And these voting segments act largely independent of the caste and community considerations.

They need development and in electing their representatives, they decide based on the prospects of development only. These segments are the demanding class of voters who expect the scenario to change and are ready to experiment.

They don’t hesitate in taking swift decisions when they see their decisions not honoured. They don’t err in judging the history and the context of political legacy as a burden when it stops delivering.

We saw it beautifully in case of the Aam Aadmi Party’s unexpected surge in Delhi and the party’s immediate fall in the Lok Sabha elections when it betrayed the mandate of the people, the people who were not from some particular votebanks and who had voted Arvind Kejriwal in, the people who were from every caste and community, including the aspiring and demanding youth of the nation.

Narendra Modi and the BJP need to read this writing on the wall regularly if Mr. Modi is serious about coming back to power in 2019.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

UTTAR PRADESH: POLARISATION VS COUNTER-POLARISATION

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

No Muslim candidate has won from Uttar Pradesh. Call it ‘reverse polarisation’ or ‘counter polarisation’ of simply polarisation of the Hindu voters against the perceived ‘communalization’ of the ‘Brand Narendra Modi’ pushed hard by his political opponents that has boomeranged.

The 16th Lok Sabha will not have even a single Muslim representative from Uttar Pradesh. And what is more startling (or analytically remarkable) is, it has happened so for the first time since Independence.

Though Muslim candidates are runner-ups in as many as 18 constituencies, catering to the logic of 12-15 Muslim MPs in the mainstream fight corresponding to around 18% share of Muslims in UP population, the absolute absence of a Muslim voice from Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha gives rise to the valid questions on the Muslim appeasement politics as has been practiced by the political parties like Congress, SP, BSP, RJD, JDU and other similar members.

Muslim vote polarisation has always been a reality, ever since the BJP became the main political opposition in the country.

And the BJP successfully countering that polarisation with the Hindu vote polarisation (a major factor in projecting the Modi Wave) in the General Elections 2014 is an ominous sign for the Muslim appeasement politics, for the Muslim voice of representation in the legislative and other elected bodies, and for the overall health of the Indian society that has been a meeting point of different cultures and religions.

One important pointer about it is, the winning margins in most cases where Muslim candidates are Number 2, are big. It shows the trend of a sweeping wave of Hindu vote polarisation. The backdrop of the fact that UP fought these Lok Sabha polls in the shadow of Muzaffarnagar and other riots in the state support the logic well.

The trends of polarisation and counter-polarisation, if practiced further, has the potential to divide the societies further.

And it doesn’t speak well of the future until the concerned ‘populations’ understand this ugly game of the votebank politics, that divides the societies lethally, that pushes the relevant issues to the periphery making community the pivotal point of access to the voters.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: UPDATES 7 PM TO 9 PM

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

#Congress and #SP rout in #UP makes it family affair for them. They fail to win any other constituency that the seats of Gandhi family (2 seats) and Yadav family (5 seats) members.

#Varanasi @ 7:42 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 3.36 lakh votes – 516593 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 179739 votes; Ajai Rai – 68080 votes; BSP – 57531 votes; SP – 42242 votes. Final tally not declared yet.

#Vadodara @ 7:42 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 5.7 lakh votes – 845464 votes; Madhusudan Mistry of #INC – 275336 votes. Mistry is #Congress’ UP in-charge. Final tally not declared yet.
@ 7:54 PM – #Modi leads his constituencies – #Varanasi by over 3.36 lakh votes and #Vadodara by 5.7 lakh votes. Mulayam leads his constituencies – #Azamgarh by 63000 votes and #Mainpuri by 3.64 lakh votes. The contrast and the difference on the scale of acceptability is clear.

Rahul Gandhi had won Amethi by 3.7 lakh votes in 2009 with 72% vote share. In 2014, his lead @8 PM is 1 Lakh votes, and it is to remain at this level. BJP’s Smriti Irani gave him good fight and run for time and money.

#Modi is expected to get around 60% of votes in Varanasi. Twice before it, candidates in Varanasi have got more than 60% votes – Chandra Shekhar in 1977 (Bhartiya Lok Dal-66.22%) and Anil Shastri in 1989 (Janta Dal-62.31%).

Narendra Modi is now the PM-designate of India. He is expected to take oath on May 21.
He delivered his victory speech in #Vadodara, where, once again, he repeated his favourite line that was just a labourer. Hope, the sanity remains and prevails in the days to come. Hope, he delivers on the sky-high promises and expectation. He needs to deliver for India, for #Varanasi. Otherwise, the trend is becoming clear for the non-performing and manipulating politicians in India.

@ 9 PM – Varanasi tally remains the same – #Modi leads #Varanasi by over 3.36 lakh votes. Arvind Kejriwal is No.2. He did satisfactorily by scoring 1.8 lakh votes. Ajai Rai came a poor 3rd in spite of INC’s all efforts. Thankfully, the regional parties, SP and BSP, with no development agenda were pushed to be at 4th n 5th spots by the voters.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: UPDATES 4 PM TO 7 PM

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

#BJP is to make clean sweep in 6 states, #Gujarat, #Rajasthan, #Delhi, #Uttarakhand, #Himachal Pradesh, #Goa, and 6 union territories (obviously for records only, because except all are single seat constituencies).

#Congress is in imminent danger of losing the ‘leader of opposition’ position. Trends now give it less than 10% of 543 Lok Sabha seats. Having 10% of the seats is the requirement set for a party to have the leader of opposition from its ranks.

Total votes of #Kejriwal, #INC, SP and BSP in #Varanasi, 2.6 lakh, is much less than around 3.5 lakh Muslim votes of Varanasi.

Sonia, Rahul speaking. Take responsibility of Congress drubbing. Let’s see the composition of the message.

#Congress comes 3rd in all seats of #Delhi. From 7-0 in 2009, it is 0-7 for the party now.

Rabri Devi loses. #BJP’s Rajiv Pratap Rudy takes winning lead of over 50000 votes. Lalu’s ‘samosa’ didn’t get extra ‘aalu’ (potato).

#Varanasi @ 5:22 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 3.12 lakh votes – 484726 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 172273 votes; Ajai Rai – 65243 votes; BSP – 53944 votes; SP – 40628 votes. #Congress regains 3rd position.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: UPDATES 2 PM TO 4 PM

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

#Varanasi @ 2:09 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 1.7 lakh votes – 243039 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 69551 votes; BSP – 29711 votes; Ajai Rai – 26516 votes; SP – 21075 votes.

Jaswant Singh loses #Barmer. He should have won. His #BJP rehabilitation still possible?

Most of the #INC, #Congress young guns bite the dust – most of them the dynasty products – a welcome development.

Arun Jaitley’s loss from #Amritsar was expected. But he is still expected to be among the senior most ministers of Modi Cabinet.

Bravo! Salman Khurshid loses and loses big, deposit forfeited in #Farrukhabad. Now, this is brilliant. Real scoop. Real good news. His arrogance sucks.

#Varanasi @ 3:39 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 2.5 lakh votes – 357680 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 106828 votes; BSP – 44671 votes; Ajai Rai – 39723 votes; SP – 30997 votes.

Another arrogant leader of Congress, Mani Shankar Aiyar loses from #Mayiladuthurai in Tamil Nadu. He would certainly be thinking about his chai-walla jibe on #Modi.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: UPDATES 12 PM TO 2 PM

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

Rahul Gandhi’s lead in #Amethi is just over 2000 votes as of now. What are we going to have in store?

Varanasi at 11.24 AM: Narendra Modi – 62218 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 18322 votes; Ajai Rai – 8037 votes; BSP – 5884 votes; SP – 4784 votes.

After the counting day trends, the scramble for Narendra Modi’s Cabinet, is going to make for the headlines next. #ModiCabinet and Modi Cabinet are going to be the top trends.

#BJP wins another much talked about constituency – #Ghaziabad. V K Singh wins by around 50000 votes.

#NarendraModi leading in #Varanasi by 50000 votes as of now. Around 6.5 lakh votes yet to be counted.

Mulayam Singh Yadav leading #Azamgarh by 17000 votes. BSP 2nd. Sitting BJP MP 3rd.

Rajnath Singh leading #Lucknow by 32000 votes. INC 2nd. BSP distant 3rd.

Murli Manohar Joshi poised to win #Kanpur. Joshi leading by 50000 votes with 1.33 lakh votes. Sriprakash Jaiswal 2nd. BSP distant 3rd.

#BJP poised to win riots affected #Muzaffarnagar from #BSP. Polarisation worked.

#NarendraModi formally wins #Varanasi. That was beyond doubt. Let’s see the final tally on margin. It should justify the Modi Wave. BSP won it last time.

#BJP winning another riots affected seat, #Kairana. BJP candidate leading the constituency with the winning majority of over 1.3 lakh votes. BSP won it last time.
#Results2014, #Verdict2014

Given the defining trends, it is to be said now the Modi Factor could transform into ‘Modi Wave’ to sweep India. India is going to have its most stable govt in 30 years (after 1984) decades. And moreover, it is going to be largely free of coalition compulsions.

Sonia Gandhi gains winning lead in Rae Bareli. But, can she equal the 3.72 lakh margin of 2009. She got 72% votes while the runner-up could get 16% votes.

#UP, #Bihar game-plan clicks for the #BJP, playing pivotal role in BJP’s never before seen, stellar performance.

#Varanasi @ 1:09 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 1.14 lakh votes – 167646 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 53540 votes; BSP – 21361 votes; Ajai Rai – 19669 votes; SP – 16305 votes. #Congress pushed to 4th place by votes as of now.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: UPDATES TILL 12 PM

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

Party hopper, alliance hopper, and one of the most well read of the politicians, and the civil aviation minister, Ajit Singh loses Baghpat. The Harit Pradesh politics is to heat up, courtesy his increases spare time now.

#NarendraModi wins #Vadodara by margin of over 4 lakh votes.

Counting Day trends are bettering the Exit Polls projections for #BJP and #NDA as of now. And #UPA big guns are trailing.

Sanjay Jha is on Times Now. How stubborn and silly at times #INC makes its spokespersons, Jha is a classic example. And INC (Indian National Congress) has plenty of them.

‘Save Rahul’ scramble to come in its totality.

#BJP wins #Chandigarh. Railgate eats into Pawan Bansal’s pie.

It would be interesting to hear the Congressmen like Salman Khurshid, Beni Prasad Verma, Sanjay Jha, Kapil Sibal, P Chidambaram, Digvijay Singh, Randeep Surjewala, Satyavrat Chaturvedi, Janardhan Dwivedi, Salman Soj and yes, Ajay Maken. Grab them. Don’t let them disappear like #SoniaGandhi and #RahulGandhi disappeared from the posters at #INC HQ.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: D-DAY OF GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014 IS HERE

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

The D-Day of the General Elections 2014 is here. Over 550 millions voted polled across the nine phases are to be counted today.

The initial Counting Day trends by 11AM-Noon will more or less give us a picture that is expected to hold its canvas when the final tally emerges.

And the excitement to know which way it travels is living its refined hours when the counting is to begin in few hours.

The excitement remains intact:

# In spite of the BJP-wallas scrambling for Cabinet berths

# In spite of the reports on Sushma Swaraj’s no on joining the Modi’s Cabinet

# In spite of some senior RSS leaders camping in Delhi to address the related issues

# In spite of the Exit Polls giving an easy Entry to the BJP

# In spite of the IB and the CIA calculating an easy NDA win

# In spite of the mood and the body language of the Congress leaders corroborating the trends

# In spite of the reports that Rahul Gandhi’s office is busy in drafting a speech addressing the outcome and addressing the morale of the Congress workers that Rahul could deliver this evening

..in spite of all this, the excitement remains.

Then there is this ‘also discussed’ angle, too – on the possibility that what if all the poll results projecting comfortable sailing or victory for the BJP and the NDA come to naught, or what if the scenario emerged makes water too difficult to sail through.

Is #ModiCabinet (Modi Cabinet) going to trend by this noon/afternoon?

The wait is about to see its conclusion.

In 5 hours, 30 minutes from now, the counting begins, at 8 AM. First trends should be available by 9:30 AM. And the final results should be out by 4-5 PM.

Therefore…..stay tuned….. 🙂

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

BJP AND VARANASI

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) was formed in 1980 after disintegration of the Janata Party and integration of its Jana Sangh elements.

BJP fought its first parliamentary election in 1984 winning just two seats. But it was soon to spread to the extent to stake claim to form government in Uttar Pradesh, to become the principal political opposition and to form the union government in 1996.

The party has had a mixed history when assessed on parameter of political winnability nationally and regionally, but when it comes to Banaras, it has ruled the constituency since 1991 (except 2004).

And though this BJP rule has largely been ineffective for bringing development in Banaras, a constituency that has become the most important parliamentary constituency of the General Elections 2014 with Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal contesting from the seat, the prospect of being the parliamentary constituency of the prime minister has once again pushed for looking back to the BJP history in the constituency.

BJP’s stint with Varanasi began in 1984 with the party candidate Om Prakash Singh finishing 4th securing 12.7% votes. And it soon became a winning stint in 1991 when BJP’s Shreesh Chandra Dixit won the seat securing 41% votes, 9% more than the runner-up, Communist Party of India (Marxist)’s Raj Kishore.

General elections of 1996, 1998 and 1999 saw Varanasi electing BJP’s Shankar Prasad Jaiswal, a good for nothing candidate. He began with over 45% of votes, slid to 33% in the 1999 polls and lost the 2004 election to Rajesh Mishra of Congress securing only 24% votes. If Shankar Prasad Jaiswal could win three terms without doing anything for the constituency, it only tells how safe a seat Varanasi had become for the BJP.

(But what led to this equation between BJP and Varanasi? – Polarisation of Hindu votes along the religious lines in the religious and spiritual capital of Hinduism and India – after the Ram Janmabhoomi movement)

Jaiswal’s loss in 2004 was BJP’s loss more than a Congress win. Voters sent the message to the party that they could not be taken for granted and were ready for change, were ready to experiment.

But BJP should have thanked Rajesh Mishra for being just like Jaiswal in ignoring the constituency that helped BJP win back in the seat in 2009. And the similar observation can be made about Rajesh Mishra’s loss in 2009, that it was more of Congress’ loss than Murli Manohar Joshi’s win.

The narrow margin of Joshi’s win (just over 17,000) over BSP’s Mukhtar Ansari told us the voters were yet to forgive the party fully and it was only the tall stature of Joshi that he could secure the win (with 30.5% votes only).

But, Joshi also proved ineffective. He didn’t do what he was expected to do, and that too, after Jaiswal’s fiasco.

Had it not been for Narendra Modi, BJP was certainly going to lose the seat this time. And if Narendra Modi is poised to win, it has to do with his prime-ministerial claims and his pro-development image gelled well with his polarising image, something that helped the BJP make and build inroads in the constituency in 1990s.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/