MAY 7: DAY 1 IN VARANASI, BEFORE THE CAMPAIGNING ENDS ON MAY 10

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

As expected, it has begun.

Amit Shah, the BJP UP in-charge and Narendra Modi’s lieutenant addressed a late night press conference yesterday slamming the District Magistrate of Varanasi, who is also the Returning Officer of Varanasi.

The day saw high pitched protests and pressers by the BJP top brass against the Varanasi DM for denying permission to Narendra Modi rallies in the city, especially at the Benia Bagh Park. Many letters were dashed to the Election Commission demanding action against the DM. Arun Jaitley was on the job till late evening.

The late night presser of Amit Shah was to hit back at the DM after his ‘delayed’ permission late in the evening that left the BJP with no time to manage the Modi rallies tomorrow. Obviously, the ‘Yadav’ surname of Varanasi DM gives the BJP enough edge to sound victimized in this case.

But the war cry the BJP has successfully managed to raise on the issue is basically about the larger picture covering the canvassing base in the remaining seats of the Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar that are to vote on May 12 in the last phase of the General Elections 2014.

Narendra Modi’s victory in Varanasi is an unambiguous outcome, irrespective of the time he has devoted in the city or is to devote in the city. He won the constituency the day he decided to contest from it. The only factor to be seen here is his margin of victory.

Whatever were the intentions and the reasons of the District Magistrate of Varanasi, it gave the BJP an opportunity and they grabbed it, and exploited it efficiently.

Whatever reasoning the Samajwadi Party might have had for pushing the city DM (if it was so, as alleged), it is going to help the BJP only.

And the developments related to the episode have enough fuel to add significantly to the BJP’s possible protests today.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

LAST DAYS OF MAD RUSH IN VARANASI

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

Though Priyanka Gandhi has said she would not campaign in Varanasi, it cannot be said that some other big name of the Congress party’s first family won’t go to Varanasi before the campaigning in the city ends on May 10. And some reports say Rahul Gandhi is going to hold a road show there on May 9 or 10.

With the Amethi polls over by this evening, the Varanasi-centric focus of campaigning in Eastern Uttar Pradesh is going to witness scaled up and some ugly war of words before the last round of the Lok Sabha polls 2014 on May 12.

Varanasi was already an epicenter of the BJP strategy as the seat directly or indirectly affects the outcomes on around 40 seats in Eastern UP and the adjoining areas of Bihar. And therefore, campaigning has been heavily Varanasi centric.

But the candidature of Smriti Irani from Amethi did add problems to the Congress party and Priyanka Gandhi had to campaign intensively to let the way remain smooth for Rahul Gandhi. And to add to it, a big BJP name like Smriti Irani did bring the topmost BJP names including Narendra Modi to Amethi to canvass for her.

But Varanasi remained the hotspot.

And with Amethi election over, and with Narendra Modi having campaigned in Amethi, Varanasi is going to see some mad rush of last hour election campaigning. If reports say Rahul Gandhi is going to be there, to settle scores with Narendra Modi, to tell others that the Congress party is not the passive mover and can hit back, equally and vehemently, we are having something brewing to be spilled over.

Big Muslim leaders from Congress and UPA including Salman Khurshid, Ghulam Nabi Azad, K Rahman Khan and Nawab Malik are camping in Varanasi to mobilize the Muslim votes against Narendra Modi. Other Congress names will certainly make their presence counted, especially after Rahul’s proposed pitch. Modi is expected to hold road shows and rallies there. Arun Jaitley is camping in the city to hammer the final plan. Shivraj Singh Chouhan held a rally there. Many other names are scheduled to make appearance. Arvind Kejriwal has already reached Varanasi to push together his last concerted efforts.

And the way the war of words has become Modi Vs Priyanka, Modi Vs Rahul, BJP Vs Congress and BJP Vs Others, some unpleasant high decibel uncalled for tune is going to flow in the city of temples till the campaigning ends on May 10.

May 7 to 10 – these four days are going to generate some high voltage political events in the religious and spiritual capital of India that could lower the norms of political decorum even more.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

VARANASI: JUST A WEEK LEFT, MODI’S POSITION EVEN MORE CONSOLIDATED

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

A week is left. Varanasi is to vote in the last phase of the Lok Sabha elections on May 12. Before that, some big seats of Eastern UP including Amethi and Sultanpur are going to polls on May 7 and that leaves Varanasi battleground free for the last rush of verbal assaults.

But, as the time before the voting day in Varanasi is almost over, the clear picture has become even more visible.

Arvind Kejriwal’s campaign has lost its steam, like it has happened everywhere else with AAP candidates. The gloom is evident with first Arvind Kejriwal and now Yogendra Yadav accepting that ‘quitting the Delhi government decision’ misfired.

Mukhtar Ansari, the number 2 in 2009 elections realized his precarious condition that even if all the Muslim votes polarised in his favour, he was staring at a humiliating loss in the absence of any mainstream political party ticket backing him thus devoiding him of the Hindu votes. This development coupled with strong pro-Narendra Modi sentiments among the Hindu voters of Varanasi were clearing signals for him and found his exit route.

The Congress candidate Ajai Rai, a Bhumihar by caste and considered a strongman is no match to Modi’s electoral stature. He is facing revolt in his family and in the larger Bhumihar community of the constituency counting for over 1,50,000 votes on opposing Narendra Modi and taking support of Mukhtar Ansari who is alleged to be involved in the murder of Awadhesh Singh, elder brother of Ajai Rai and a local don of influence. Mukhtar is also facing allegations of masterminding the murder of another Bhumihar BJP MLA of Varanasi, Krishnanand Rai, in 2005.

Likewise, the SP and the BSP candidates are no challenges to Modi and can be done away with even without naming them in the electoral discourses on Varanasi.

And as the campaign in Varanasi has progressed, the Modi factor in the city has become even more biting on the electoral health of his political rivals in the city.

The overall national projections of Narendra Modi, the BJP and the NDA showing a clear positive swing and a possibility of clear majority for an NDA-led Union Government have added to the polarising personality of Narendra Modi in Varanasi and it was evident from the huge crowd that welcomed him on his nomination day last month. That strength of the crowd was certainly not a managed one and anyone who studies and obverses the election management practices can vouch for it.

Narendra Modi’s victory in Varanasi was there from the day 1, when his candidature was announced.

And like every other article on Modi’s electoral prospects in Varanasi, this one, too, needs to end with the only question that matters for Modi’s political stature and his Varanasi candidature – the margin of his victory – and Modi looks to have consolidated his position to widen the gap.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014: WAR OF WORDS TO GET EVEN MORE DECORATED

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

Modi says hang me if found guilty in Gujarat riots. P Chidambaram says Modi is a compulsive lawyer and an encounter CM.

Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, both are ‘comparatively’ readily and easily available for one-on-one interviews these days. We should expect to see good enough count before the polls are over, something that could clear the backlog.

On the poll theatrics and campaigning atmospherics, it is an all out verbal war between Narendra Modi and the Gandhi family taking the Congress Vs BJP bitterness to a higher acerbic level.

Meanwhile, the other mouths continue to dangle and dazzle, from nowhere to everywhere, from saying something that counts for nothing to saying something everything bad in the manual of the model code of conduct (MCC).

And with the 5th phase of the of General Elections to elect the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, over, the scramble is now to become even more visible and audible to the voters, as the remaining four phases account for more than half of the 543 Lok Sabha members to be elected through these elections. With the 5th phase over, the fate of 232 Lok Sabha constituencies are sealed in the electronic voting machines.

Then, there are the opinion polls, to add to the ambience, to make it even more colourful and vibrant.

And the way the recent opinion polls (in fact almost every subsequent one) have added to the earlier projected tallies of the BJP led NDA sending the opposition coalition alliance to even greener territories and one major opinion poll has given the alliance a clear majority just before the 5th phase of the polls, is highly catalytic to precipitate the desperation in Congress and other political outfits to a more active level of expression.

The lubrication due to this catalytic effect is bound to generate even more heat that, in turn, will decorate the words being used in the verbal war even more lavishly.

And to outdo the competition, the BJP and the other NDA parties will do all, with an even more energised outlook thanks to the ‘clear majority’ projection potion.

After all, this has been one of the major traits of Indian democracy, especially in the last two decades, gaining new insights and scaling new heights with every election held.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

A POLITICALLY ENLIGHTENED ARVING KEJRIWAL IS REACHING VARANASI NEXT MORNING

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

Arvind Kejriwal has left for Varanasi and is reaching there the next morning to pick the thread of campaigning that he had initiated last month. Almost three weeks have passed since then.

During these three weeks, Kejriwal, on one fine day, got the half-baked enlightenment that pushed him to say that the time chosen to leave the Delhi government was wrong.

While saying this in a half-hearted temper, Kejriwal put his moral on the higher pedestal declaring the move a tactical miscalculation as the Delhiites could not understand his puritan motive.

And now, with this enlightenment (political) that has lighten the burden of his heart, he is reaching the city of Lord Shiva tomorrow to set in motion his campaigning that is directed against defeating Narendra Modi.

And like an enlightened soul, Kejriwal expects to be hit again, but not now. He says, in a way of saying, that in real terms of thrashing, the real thrashing stands postponed, that he is safe until the elections are over as any more thrashing attempt may ‘boomerang’ and may benefit Kejriwal and AAP electorally. His enlightenment says the ‘real’ thrashing will come after the Lok Sabha polls.

(The alter-ego to his enlightenment says that it is logical that these thrashings should stop for now as these have failed to produce any electoral wave of sympathy for AAP/Arvind Kejriwal.)

And like an enlightened politician, Kejriwal now sounds like accepting a defeat (in Varanasi and elsewhere) in the garb of moral victory, expecting that the unexpected could, somehow, happen. He is seeking ‘truth’ to defeat forces like BJP and Narendra Modi (he doesn’t consider Congress a worthy adversary anymore!).

He says: “What is needed is the path of truth… This is what happened in the Delhi election too. People used to then remark that we had no money. I agreed. But I told everyone that we were on the path of truth. We need to stick to that.”

And with this enlightened thinking, he is reaching Varanasi the next morning to take on Narendra Modi who is busy crisscrossing the country. Refusal of Mukhtar Ansari (that has left the Muslim votes available to others) has already given him a boost before the next leg of his Varanasi stay as he can expect to mobilize the Muslim votes in his favour now.

(The alter-ego to this enlightenment says the deal with Mukhtar Ansari to consolidate the anti-Narendra Modi votes is indeed a political requirement of the electoral scene of now in Varanasi though the ‘truth-seeker’ in Kejriwal rubbishes reports of any deal with the don-turned-politician who is in jail for rioting, murder and other charges, even if Mukhtar’s brother claims to have the CCTV footage of AAP leaders in meeting with him to discuss the possibility of Mukhtar leaving the Varanasi seat.)

And with this enlightened political persona, Kejriwal is reaching Varanasi to hit the campaign trail, banking on the strength of his ‘truth’.

Varanasi has been electorally-politically interesting right from the day Narendra Modi announced his candidature. Kejriwal only added to it. And now, a politically enlightened, truth-seeker Kejriwal is going to add even more spice to it.

Some pretty interesting days (electorally-politically) ahead folks!

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

LOKPAL BILL PASSED: IN 10 DAYS FLAT!

The Lok Sabha passed the Lokpal Bill yesterday paving the way for its implementation. Implementation – that is the big, another complicated battle lying next.

Passage of a ‘compromised’ bill with some good and some ‘can and to be manipulated’ features is just half the battle won.

And the day comes after 45 years if we begin with 1968 when a related legislation was tried for the first time in the Indian Parliament or it may be after 50 years if we take the first discussion on an anti-corruption ombudsman in 1963 in the Indian Parliament as the point to begin.

And see the brazenness of the political class who kept delaying it for so long, for five decades, is now singing paeans of its efforts, of being the anti-corruption champions.

Now who is going to tell them again that we are not fools? Okay, we, as electors, have acted and act erratically and foolishly every now and then, but many of us are not fools.

Yes, we didn’t have options. All in the political lot were similar. So many of us didn’t vote or if voted, we went for the best of the available, even if we were not satisfied.

We needed option. NOTA is now one. Yes, we cannot say the Aam Aadmi Party way is an option but its remarkable electoral show in Delhi tells us and everyone in clear terms that anti-corruption is the central poll plank and is going to play big in the upcoming general elections scheduled for next April-May.

The AAP show tells the politicians about centrality of corruption as ‘the’ poll plank and to ‘look’ sincere on anti-corruption measures. And this centrality forced the mainstream political parties to go into a huddle, to form an ‘alliance’ to pass the Lokpal Bill, and that too, in 10 days flat.

Yes, 10 days, since December 8, when the assembly election results of Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh were announced, results that gave AAP, the one-year old political debutant, 28 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly making it the second largest party after BJP’s 31 seats. And AAP’s success has its origin in the hugely successful anti-corruption movement of 2011 for Lokpal led by Anna Hazare the epicenter of which was Delhi.

The aspect that is to be seen here is how the politicians came back to their tricks of delaying the Bill once the anti-corruption movement got derailed in 2012. In spite of passing a lame and inefficient bill in Lok Sabha in December 2011, they were not sincere to pass even this diluted version, and they did not present it, debated it or pass it, until the assembly election results of December 8, when they were slapped hard by the electorate on the issue of corruption.

Before this, their arrogance was dismissing the corruption plank, the anti-corruption movement was being seen as long dead and they were back to treat the Indian masses having short memory believing they would forget the acts of political corruption soon.

Had it been for a poor show by AAP in Delhi, even Anna Hazare’s ongoing fast would not have ensured such a ‘lightening fast’ passage of the Lokpal Bill by the Indian Parliament.

But the Delhi public had an option this time that was ‘unlike’ the others in the political fraternity and though yet to be proven, it went for them.

And that forced the mainstream political class to scramble to ‘at least look sincere’ on coming down heavily on corruption and this forced-necessity pushed them to pass the ‘compromised’ Lokpal Bill, the many provisions of which can still be killer for the corrupt politicians and officials, in a hurry, because there is no time left in the big political battle, the Lok Sabha polls.

Their scare and not their commitment that the centrality of corruption as the poll issue may reflect across the country in the 2014 general elections made them pass the bill in such haste.

And dear political folks, we realise it.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

MODI-FACTOR VS MODI-WAVE

Personality wave in electoral battles basically follows personality cult. To be a personality cult there, there need to be a large scale uniform acceptability across a large geographical and sociological cross section of the poll-bound area.

If we follow this simple logic of common sense, we can easily say there was no Modi-wave in the recently concluded assembly polls in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Better than expected results in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh help the proponents of the Modi-wave theories but then Chhattisgarh and Delhi results, where BJP could hardly win in one and could emerge as the largest party but short of majority in other, defy their every logic.

It is true Narendra Modi did positively add to the BJP vote-share in these assembly polls but it was not a wave, it was the Modi-factor in play.

And there is a clear and visible distance, from Modi-factor to Modi-wave, to be travelled.

Personality waves in electoral events, if is there is really a personality wave, are very strong, strong enough to dwarf every other factor.

Had there been a Modi-wave, we would not have such a close fight in Chhattisgarh; we would not have a hung assembly in Delhi.

Had there been a Modi-wave, it could have easily countered and negated the sympathy wave that helped Congress in Bastar constituencies in Chhattisgarh after its top state leaders were killed in a Naxal attack there. 8 out of 12 assembly seats falling in that area went to the Congress party.

Had it been for a Modi-wave, we would not have a hung assembly outcome in Delhi. It could have easily replaced the Anna and AAP factor in being the primary claimants exploiting the huge anti-incumbency against the Congress-led governments, at Union and at State levels.

But that did not happen.

To dwarf such known factors and some unpredictable factors like the sympathy votes in Bastar, in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls, Modi’s popularity needs to travel this distance, it there has to be a Modi-wave by the next April-May when the voters go out to vote to elect the next Union Government of India.

But in the prevailing political circumstances, even a Narendra Modi factor would be more than enough for the BJP to secure around 200 seats, a threshold that the party needs in order to command political allies to cross the 272 mark to prove majority in the House, if the BJP strategists could successfully align the Modi-factor along the huge nation-wide anti-incumbency against the Congress-led UPA government.

And so what is this Modi-factor. It is many sub-factors that make Narendra Modi the tallest political leader of the present political lot; that make Narendra Modi the most popular political leader in the country literally dwarfing all others; that make Narendra Modi an icon of development politics; that make Narendra Modi an experimenter and promoter of the identity-politics; factors that make Narendra Modi the absolute factor of the ‘politics of polarisation’ in India.

There are in-built positives and negatives with these Modi sub-factors. How these sub-factors are played out by BJP is going to the shape the effectiveness of the Modi-factor in the upcoming general elections; is going to write the equations for the party.

Yes, if there comes around a political scenario of BJP getting the absolute majority on its own, then we can safely call it’s a Modi-wave where positives and negatives don’t matter; where the cult of the personality becomes a phenomenon sweeping the mindsets.

Let’s watch to analyse.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

AAP: TREND-SETTING TAKEAWAYS FOR 2014 GENERAL ELECTIONS CAMPAIGN FROM FOUR-STATE POLL RESULTS ON DECEMBER 8

What are the trend-setting takeaways for the 2014 General Elections campaign from the outcome of the four assembly elections held this November-December the results of which were announced on December 8 (Mizoram, being one Lok Sabha seat only, doesn’t matter for the mainstream political parties when it comes to the electoral equations and thus the political calculations to devise strategies and design campaigns).

Delhi or no Delhi – Aam Aadmi Party needs to play it down to play it longer:

Yes, AAP now needs a special mention here. Though just a regional party at the moment with just one electoral performance in Delhi in its bag, it has stirred the established notions of the current political establishment in India. Barring few, almost everyone was dismissive of the new outfit until the results came on December 8. They are now expressing their desire to learn from ‘how AAP did it’.

And yes, what a surprisingly pleasant entry it has been. A voice to the suppressed and expressed desire of political change in India!

Delhi may not have a government for the next six months with President Rule in place after the hung-assembly verdict. As the Lok Sabha polls are scheduled by April-May, holding another assembly election in Delhi should not be an issue. In fact, it should be seen as a welcome opportunity.

AAP needs to focus on consolidating its Delhi gains and should design its campaign in a way so as to not to waste its efforts and energy in widening its base out of Delhi so soon.

Widening base – for any political outfit, that is important. But AAP needs to play it differently. It needs to play down its Delhi feat until it gets comfortably in the office and starts running the show of governance comfortably as well.

It needs to prove it first in the office. Expanding from there would be the next logical step. It needs to see it does not become another AGP (Asom Gana Parishad).

Expanding beyond Delhi needs considerable resources in terms of time and finance availability. Also, demography of Delhi that made AAP the real winner of the Delhi polls is not there in the small town and hinterlands of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar or Maharashtra or any other state of the country. Also, Arvind Kejriwal is not JP. Even Anna Hazare could not be.

So, it is important for the party to set its priorities right to move further, to expand its political footprint, to design a campaign for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls (and possibly for the Delhi assembly repoll).

With Delhi as mainstay for its Lok Sabha election campaigning (and possibly for assembly seats in case of repoll), its campaign should focus on demographic pockets of the country with similarities to Delhi to expand its base.

Obviously it is going to be the urban centres first. It is going to be the people at the bottom of the pyramid, the middle-class and the youth of urban areas who are going to be in dialogue with AAP first. Once that happens across the urban pockets of the country, taking it to the small town and rural areas will follow.

But that needs time.

Watch to see an interesting trend analysis unveiling!

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

CONGRESS: TREND-SETTING TAKEAWAYS FOR 2014 GENERAL ELECTIONS CAMPAIGN FROM FOUR-STATE POLL RESULTS ON DECEMBER 8

What are the trend-setting takeaways for the 2014 General Elections campaign from the outcome of the four assembly elections held this November-December the results of which were announced on December 8 (Mizoram, being one Lok Sabha seat only, doesn’t matter for the mainstream political parties when it comes to the electoral equations and thus the political calculations to devise strategies and design campaigns).

Look beyond Rahul Gandhi – Look inside – Though complete redemption impossible in the time available but, at least, some ground can be saved, some humiliation can be averted:

It was ignorance and arrogance both that led the Congress party, the grand old party of India, to bite the dust, to go down so miserably.

Arrogance has been trademark of Congress rule and whenever they continue in government for more than one term, we see its convoluted form on display. First, the Manmohan Singh led UPA government messed up with the economy during the first three years of its second term. Then, in order to win the elections riding on easy money, they pushed schemes to pump easy money into the lives of millions of its targeted voters (at the cost of others who have been mostly silent till now – the middle-class bearing the brunt of everyday corruption and price rise – that was until now).

This has been a tried and verified route to pull votes the Congress party strategists believe. They have been doing this at the cost of the middle-class votes. Also, they have been attracting the minority votes significantly. Their equations have been to rely on votebanks coming from the bottom of the human pyramid as well as from the minorities.

But things are changing now. The middle class is emerging as a major segment in Indian electoral politics. This middle-class is aware of its rights and votes accordingly. The huge youth base of India, across the caste, class and religion lines, that votes on ‘issue-based politics’ comes from this class. To add to it, there are other significant claimants of minority voters now in the league as well.

In all this, the Congress party could not understand or gauge the public sentiment on issues of price rise and corruption. Political corruption in India has become a global talking point and Manmohan Singh’s government is seen as the most corrupt of the governments in the office.

And the price rise – it is affecting all, the targeted votebank of Congress at the bottom of the pyramid, the minorities, as well as the ignored middle-class.

By the time, the Congress party strategists realized the deteriorating ground for them, it was too late. The Rahul Gandhi elevation was a desperate effort to reclaim the lost ground. In 2013, Congress could win just one big state, Karnataka. But linking this to Rahul Gandhi factor, if they thought so, was again a mistake. Congress didn’t win in Karnataka but BJP lost it.

The other approach that the Congress party strategists saw to corner votes – the populist schemes – direct cash transfer for subsidies and the food security have failed to leave any impact so far and there is very little time left in the Lok Sabha polls.

The Rahul Gandhi factor and the ‘easy money for easy votes’ experiments, both have failed to help Congress.

In 2009, the situation was different. UPA had performed well in its first term. Then there were populist schemes like the farm debt waiver riding on a successful government and a faceless opposition. Also, Narendra Modi was not a popular leader of national stature then.

It’s different now. UPA has failed on almost every front in its second term. Results of the assembly polls just concluded tell us the populist schemes did not add to the votebank. In fact it was slipped away considerably as the huge losses in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi (both Congress ruled till the elections) show us. And Narendra Modi is a much taller leader of national acceptance now. No other political leader comes anywhere near to him in popularity.

And midst all this, Rahul Gandhi is failing, again and again. The Rahul Gandhi factor has become more of a hot air than substance. Rahul does campaign extensively but his words are still fatigued by the old symptoms of his politics – no connect, no context, no modulation, repetitions, alienated words and poorly researched customization.

He is failing to establish the connect that is needed to align the voters. And remember, Rahul Gandhi is the main campaigner for the Congress party.

Though it cannot save the day in the prevailing circumstances, a Congress party relying heavily on Rahul Gandhi needs to introspect if it has to save itself from the ignominy of political marginalization in the next Lok Sabha polls.

It needs to realign its campaign on the lines of fighting the Lok Sabha polls in a sporting spirit, beyond character assassinations. It needs to act humbly and sound so while approaching the voters. Rahul Gandhi must not make the voters vote for hours in his rallies. The Congress party strategists must look beyond the trio of Sonia-Rahul-Manmohan. Their leaders must not make insensitive comments on price rise and corruption.

And they must look utmost sincere, sensible and honest in dealing with price rise and corruption. It is difficult for them to do because it has been the work culture and culture of the Congress party.

They have two opportunities to set the precedent to base their campaigning for the Lok Sabha polls – the JPC report on 2G Spectrum Scam and Anna Hazare’s renewed agitation for the Lokpal Bill.

Can they do it this time? Going by the government’s attitude on the 2G scam report, it doesn’t look so.

Watch to see an interesting trend analysis unveiling!

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

BJP: TREND-SETTING TAKEAWAYS FOR 2014 GENERAL ELECTIONS CAMPAIGN FROM FOUR-STATE POLL RESULTS ON DECEMBER 8

What are the trend-setting takeaways for the 2014 General Elections campaign from the outcome of the four assembly elections held this November-December the results of which were announced on December 8 (Mizoram, being one Lok Sabha seat only, doesn’t matter for the mainstream political parties when it comes to the electoral equations and thus the political calculations to devise strategies and design campaigns).

BJP’s Modi-wave rant is going to be under the impending influence of the reality: The reality is imminent and the BJP strategists should read it rather than trying tagging along to getting aligned with the all powerful prime ministerial nominee of BJP and NDA. They need to read the writing on the wall carefully because there are in-built elements of confusion.

Confusions that will lead to complacency and hence to the possibilities of debacle in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls!

Before the elections, till the day of the counting, BJP was being projected to be the clear winner in all the four important states where elections were being held, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, in the polls being seen as the semifinal, the immediately preceding electorally important event before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

The talks of the Modi-wave were all around, being discussed, being dismissed.

So, it was more of a test of the Modi-wave it could be said. Also, it was going to give an opportunity to test the waters for the design of BJP’s election campaigning for the upcoming general elections.

Only if they read into it! Only if they are reading further into it!

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan may confuse but Delhi, Chhattisgarh should act as eye openers.

While BJP has performed exceedingly well beating expectations in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, a point that can be raised in favour of a Modi-wave, the close contest in Chhattisgarh and not getting majority in Delhi should be enough to rebut any such point.

Though BJP has won this round of electoral politics, it needs to remain beware of the complacency factor.

True, Narendra Modi is a factor adding positively to the BJP prospects, but he is yet to become a wave, if he becomes a personality wave at all, something that remains cryptic as of now.

Had there been a Modi-wave, we would not have such a close fight in Chhattisgarh; we would not have a hung assembly in Delhi.

Personality waves in electoral events, if is there is really a personality wave, are very strong, strong enough to dwarf every other factor.

Had there been a Modi-wave, it could have easily countered and negated the sympathy wave that helped Congress in Bastar constituencies in Chhattisgarh after its top state leaders were killed in a Naxal attack there. 8 out of 12 assembly seats falling in that area went to the Congress party.

Had it been for a Modi-wave, we would not have a hung assembly outcome in Delhi. It could have easily replaced the Anna and AAP factor in being the primary claimants exploiting the huge anti-incumbency against the Congress-led governments, at Union and at State levels.

But that did not happen.

This realization is important for BJP if the party has to capitalize on the deepening anti-Congress sentiments across the nation. Modi’s popularity across the country (and not Modi-wave) would certainly help the party to gain deeper and wider.

True, there are factors that can make it a Modi-wave by the time we enter the final round of the campaigning for the 2014 General Elections, but they need this realization and the subsequent synergizing efforts to make them dominating at play.

Watch to see an interesting trend analysis unveiling!

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/