MODI TAKES ON AAP, AAP TAKES ON MODI AND QUESTIONING BEGINS

THE QUESTIONS

1. Narendra Modi formally launched BJP’s poll campaign for the Delhi assembly polls from the Ramlila Ground today. Modi is expected to be the main card of BJP with an intensive campaigning revolving around him. Is BJP forced to ride on the Modi Wave once again as the party has no face even remotely near to Arvind Kejriwal’s popularity as Delhiites’ chief-ministerial choice as every pre-poll survey so far has projected?

2. Modi pushed big for the ‘electricity sop’ promising 24-hour supply and freedom to choose from among the discoms based on their rate cards. Will it be an effective counter to Aam Aadmi Party’s promise of slashing the electricity tariff by half given the fact that AAP did reduce the electricity tariff during its 49-day government as promised in the poll campaign?

3. Will the ‘deserter tag’ be enough for BJP to counter AAP and win the elections with clear majority?

4. Alternatively, will Kejriwal’s popularity as the most preferred chief-ministerial choice be enough to check the hostile sentiments on Kejriwal and AAP deserting Delhi just after 49 days and pushing Delhi to remain without a government for almost a year and mobilize the voters to give AAP full majority?

5. Or AAP would be able to deflect some of the blame to BJP for leaving Delhi without a government for almost a year as we continuously came across developments where AAP demanded fresh polls but BJP sounded non-committal?

6. Given the tone of Modi and thus the BJP rally, taking on AAP directly using terms like ‘masters of lies’ and AAP’s counter presser in the evening hitting back using equally acerbic terms like ‘master of empty speeches’ – was the tone of an all out ‘Modi Vs Kejriwal’ and thus ‘BJP Vs AAP’ verbal war set today?

7. Though Arvind Kejriwal said today that he would refrain from responding to personal attacks, but can he be trusted for it given his high intensity activist mode of campaigning? He has gone as far as to camping in Gujarat, where he has no base, to dig dirt and target Modi.

8. Over half an hour speech of Narendra Modi was largely focused on AAP. AAP’s presser was to counter Modi’s speech during the rally at the Ramilia Ground. Though Modi took on Congress, it was basically an AAP driven rally. Is the triangular contest of 2013 assembly polls is reduced effectively to a BJP Vs AAP contest in 2015?

9. Sheila Dikshit on Thursday said Congress could again support AAP in forming the government. Doesn’t it convey the Congress leadership has already accepted that it is fighting a lost battle?

10. Both, Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal, are perceived as incorruptible at personal level. How would it affect the mood of the campaigning?

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey–https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

THE QUESTIONS ARVIND KEJRIWAL SHOULD THINK OVER! (1)

THE QUESTIONS

1. Mr. Arvind Kejriwal, why do you think you can still score in Delhi assembly elections? Do you also feel the way a senior Congress politician had famously remarked that ‘public has a very short memory and it soon forgets on allegations in coal scam’?

2. But, why should Delhi trust you after placing its trust in you that you didn’t reciprocate?

3. Don’t your acts say you are power-hungry? You didn’t have majority. Yours were not even the largest party. Yet, you chose to go with a party the policies of which you always berated to form the government when the largest party, BJP, chose to stay away. And when you saw the chance, or were made to believe that you could play a bigger role in the national politics, you simply dumped the confidence of the Delhi voters in search of greener pastures.

4. Now, one of the arguments you give that Aam Aadmi Party’s vote share increased in the Lok Sabha election in Delhi. But seen in comparison with BJP, AAP’s increase stands nowhere. BJP was leading in 60 of the 70 assembly segments in the Lok Sabha election and it registered growth of over 13% in vote share while AAP’s increase was around 4%. Isn’t there simply a BJP or Modi wave in Delhi?

5. Also, the different pre-poll projections say if the elections are held today, BJP will win a clear mandate. You have rebuffed surveys in past saying they are manipulative studies. But seeing BJP’s performance, that was again proved in Maharashtra and Haryana assembly polls, don’t you feel you are waging a lost battle?

6. Haryana, where BJP was nowhere in the scene, shot to power in one go, and with thumping majority. Yes, BJP had been a player in the state for decades but was always treated as junior partner by its allies. While they fought this election alone after the confidence they gained with the Lok Sabha election results, AAP withdrew from Haryana, not contesting even, when Haryana was being seen as the next logical political extension of AAP beyond Delhi. Don’t you think BJP has already won the psychological battle?

7. Is Arvind Kejriwal an answer to the Modi Wave? Can the Kejriwal factor balance the psychological edge the BJP has?

8. Congress is being seen as a non-player as far as the next Delhi assembly polls are concerned, unlike the last year polls where it was being seen as making the fight triangular. How do you see it in the context of the upcoming assembly polls?

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

WHATS TRENDING ON 65TH REPUBLIC DAY: INDIA, THE RAPE CAPITAL!

Saying so — It is not fashionable. It is not patronizing. It is not as looking down on some lesser important ally. It is not biased. It is rooted in deeply disturbing trends.

When the world, when the global community, when the rich nations that constitute for the bulk of the tourist inflow in India – when they warn their citizens on traveling in India, labeling the world’s largest democracy as the rape capital of the world, it has reasons, reasons that should have ashamed us to take corrective measures long ago.

And ‘taking corrective measurers’ is not just about formulating some policies. We have had many policies strong enough to check and put the effective control. In fact, an already robust legal framework was given even more teeth after the December 16, 2012 gang rape of Delhi.

But, the number of rape cases, or to say the number of reported rape cases, has increased significantly since then.

‘Taking corrective’ measures must mean implementing the measures to correct the system, and that must be ‘without delay’.

The task at hand becomes even more herculean with the fact that it is a mindset problem of a male dominated society where, in spite of all the progresses and the claims thus made, women are still treated as lesser, inferior counterparts, that further pushes for their stereotyping and commoditizing as objects, to be used, to be exploited, by the sick and perverted male mentalities.

The devil was always there, cryptically exposed, dwarfed by the inhibitions of a patriarchal society. Now, with chronically increased number of rape cases, it is telling us it doesn’t care what the morality thinks about it. It, in fact, is boasting its perversion with a shameless new audacity.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

WHATS TRENDING ON 65TH REPUBLIC DAY: CHAI WALLAH VS ASPIRING COMMON MAN VS MUFFLER WALLAH

-The ‘Chai Wallah’ Vs the Aspiring Common Man (the Prince) Vs the ‘Muffler Wallah’-

Irrespective of the Congress party not declaring Rahul Gandhi its prime-ministerial nominee and irrespective of Rahul Gandhi saying again and again that ‘power is poison and he is not for the post’, as he said again in his first formal interview to a TV channel, it is going to be Narendra Modi Vs Rahul Gandhi in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

At the moment, the balance is heavily tilted in favour of Narendra Modi after the assembly election results of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi in December last year when BJP registered a good (better than expected in some cases) performance while Congress saw humiliation, to the extent of absolute rejection.

Before, that, though Modi was still far ahead in different popularity surveys, the opinionating was not so skewed and the Rahul Factor was being talked about seriously.

That has seen a reasonable dent now.

But, still, the Congress party has no other alternative than to project Rahul Gandhi, officially or unofficially, hoping some political windfall in the last moments that may help the Rahul Factor sail through the political storm of the Lok Sabha polls 2014.

For Congress, still, the First Family comes first, when it comes to the moments of crisis, as is the case now, with a Congress led coalition government facing historically low credibility crisis and sky-high anti-incumbency.

So, irrespective of whether it is or it is not, it is going to be Rahul Gandhi Vs Narendra Modi.

And what about ‘Rahul Gandhi Vs Narendra Modi Vs Arvind Kejriwal’ hypothesis for the prime-ministerial chair of the country?

The option with ‘Vs Kejriwal’ in picture is more for the analysts and pundits who are going to come with their psephological, sociopolitical and sociological viewpoints before the elections, factoring in the ‘Kejriwal Factor (or AAP Factor) after the stunning success of the Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi assembly elections.

So, even if a ‘Kejriwal Factor’ is non-existent or is having absolutely low recall intensity beyond Delhi-NCR and some urban pockets, it is going to be in news and discussions until the Lok Sabha poll results come. Also, the growing base of controversies against AAP, in just 30 days of it coming to power in Delhi, has corroded the national ambitions of the new party in real terms. Now, they need to deliver Delhi first.

Therefore, for voters spread across the villages, towns, cities and metro cities, it is mainly going to be Narendra Modi Vs Rahul Gandhi.

For certain populations spread across certain geographical localities, and for the discourse utility of the Kejriwal Factor for political discussions on TV news channels and other media vehicles, it is going to be Rahul Gandhi Vs Narendra Modi Vs Arvind Kejriwal.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

LOKPAL: THE ‘COMPROMISED’ BILL IS LOGICAL ENOUGH TO BEGIN WITH

We are always free to demand for more and we will..

There have been debates and there will be debates on effectiveness of the just passed Lokpal Bill, to create an anti-corruption ombudsman. Some would dismiss. Some would extol. Some would remain skeptical and would prefer to wait and watch.

What was being demanded by the civil society was not a practical one. What was being given by the government was not an acceptable one.

But, the Bill passed ‘finally’ by the Indian Parliament on December 18, can be seen, more or less as an acceptable one to begin with. Broadly, it paves the way for an ombudsman that if implemented in time, with proper infrastructure and with supportive legislations like the Citizen Charter Bill, the Judicial Accountability Bill and the Whistleblowers Protection Bill can prove really effective in spite of the reservations over many of its provisions.

The need is to develop a good ecosystem with all these constituents. Yes, we all know it’s easier said than done. And given the prevalence of political opportunism in India, we know it’s not going to be easy.

But, at least, we have a point to begin now.

The fight has been a long and circuitous one and this outcome should not be seen as a washout and should not be rejected outright. The Bill was to be passed and was to be enacted if we had to move ahead, from planning to implementations stage.

And if it could happen so, finally, after 45 or 50 years, any which way we want to look at it, it owes much to the hugely successful anti-corruption movement of 2011, especially its April and August legs that bolsters the feeling the Indians are learning to express their displeasure more and more expressively, more and more aggressively.

And that is a point to reflect on, to hope positively that an anti-corruption ecology around the Lokpal, with some other corresponding laws, can be created.

The basic requirement is the pressure from the public and its manifestation. It is good that public is increasingly expressing itself, more and more, and spontaneously, with or without a leader, as happened during the 2011 anti-corruption movement led by Anna Hazare, as happened during the huge leaderless public protests in the aftermath of December 16 Delhi gangrape and recently in the unprecedented electoral mandate to the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi assembly polls, a party that fought on the issue of corruption and successfully exploited the public sentiments mobilized after the 2011 anti-corruption movement.

So, there is an ecology of pressure being built up. And on its target are the present ways of administration and governance by the mainstream political parties of India.

On the face of it, there are many good points in the Lokpal Bill/Act cleared. It has power to prosecute. It can check every government official including the prime minister. The process of Lokpal’s appointment and dismissal is fairly logical.

These basic rules to establish and govern the institution of the anti-corruption ombudsman are broad enough to give it a good enough space to breath, to make others suffocate.

See the good precedent set by the Election Commission of India and the Comptroller & Auditor General of India, both chosen by the Indian government. The regularly increasing voter turn-out election after election and clean and violence-free elections or consistent reports putting the government on back-foot on corruption and scams like 2G, different land and defense deals have become benchmarks of the Indian Democracy.

So, there is no reason to dismiss the Lokpal even before it starts working, when it has good enough autonomy to begin with.

It is true it is a ‘compromised’ bill with politicians putting their ‘sincere’ efforts to dilute it as much as they could in the prevailing sociopolitical scenario. So, there is some tough fighting ahead to iron out the difficulties once the institution gets operational. Even in that case, it would be much easier to bring amendments to introduce the required element of reform than not having the Lokpal at all.

One of the most talked about omissions is excluding the lower bureaucracy from Lokpal’s purview areas. That is a concern area but it is not something that can not be added later provided there is intent or there is pressure to do so.

If public pressure can panic the politicians to the extent that they can pass the Bill in just 10 days after Congress routing in Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and AAP’s grand entry in Delhi in the election results announced on December 8, it can certainly push them to do so.

While a government of an outfit like AAP should happily, on its own, weed out the weaker elements, even a government of any of the mainstream political party would not be able to skirt the demand then, in an environment of a more aware electorate and more alert activists amid an increasing presence of alternative political parties and politicians like AAP or Arvind Kejriwal. AAP’s success in Delhi is bound to give India more of honest, young and unorthodox politicians in the days to come.

Alternatively, there can be this relevant afterthought. Corruption has made every part of the Indian administrative and governance machinery largely sluggish and docile.

As it affects every sphere of Indian life, its social, political and commercial activities, it has exported corruption to almost every section of Indian society, free of caste, class, religion and regional divides. It has made corruption interdependent and interrelated.

So, in a way, if we say, if we can check the corruption in the government at top level, setting some tough precedents, it can set in motion a ripple effect, that, though will take time, will trickle down to other participants, the NGO people, the lower-ranked bureaucracy and the corporate people, who are not covered under the Lokpal Act.

If there can be a check at the top level corruption, and if there can be some tough and landmark punitive action taken, some examples on this line, it will send down a clear message.

Also, when the government corruption at top level would see its avenues to earn easy money being squeezed out, it would certainly feel unhappy to see others still milking the cow.

Nothing like rocket science in thinking so – if they cannot eat, they will not let others eat – if they cannot earn easy money – they will not let others do so – the forced honesty!

So, in checking them, they would be more and more impartial, would be increasingly objective and detached.

Just an afterthought!

But I am not daydreaming folks! The Lokpal is here and that is a good sign; that is a logical reason to prepare for the next stage of the fight – to let it evolve into an effective institution.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

LOKPAL BILL PASSED: IN 10 DAYS FLAT!

The Lok Sabha passed the Lokpal Bill yesterday paving the way for its implementation. Implementation – that is the big, another complicated battle lying next.

Passage of a ‘compromised’ bill with some good and some ‘can and to be manipulated’ features is just half the battle won.

And the day comes after 45 years if we begin with 1968 when a related legislation was tried for the first time in the Indian Parliament or it may be after 50 years if we take the first discussion on an anti-corruption ombudsman in 1963 in the Indian Parliament as the point to begin.

And see the brazenness of the political class who kept delaying it for so long, for five decades, is now singing paeans of its efforts, of being the anti-corruption champions.

Now who is going to tell them again that we are not fools? Okay, we, as electors, have acted and act erratically and foolishly every now and then, but many of us are not fools.

Yes, we didn’t have options. All in the political lot were similar. So many of us didn’t vote or if voted, we went for the best of the available, even if we were not satisfied.

We needed option. NOTA is now one. Yes, we cannot say the Aam Aadmi Party way is an option but its remarkable electoral show in Delhi tells us and everyone in clear terms that anti-corruption is the central poll plank and is going to play big in the upcoming general elections scheduled for next April-May.

The AAP show tells the politicians about centrality of corruption as ‘the’ poll plank and to ‘look’ sincere on anti-corruption measures. And this centrality forced the mainstream political parties to go into a huddle, to form an ‘alliance’ to pass the Lokpal Bill, and that too, in 10 days flat.

Yes, 10 days, since December 8, when the assembly election results of Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh were announced, results that gave AAP, the one-year old political debutant, 28 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly making it the second largest party after BJP’s 31 seats. And AAP’s success has its origin in the hugely successful anti-corruption movement of 2011 for Lokpal led by Anna Hazare the epicenter of which was Delhi.

The aspect that is to be seen here is how the politicians came back to their tricks of delaying the Bill once the anti-corruption movement got derailed in 2012. In spite of passing a lame and inefficient bill in Lok Sabha in December 2011, they were not sincere to pass even this diluted version, and they did not present it, debated it or pass it, until the assembly election results of December 8, when they were slapped hard by the electorate on the issue of corruption.

Before this, their arrogance was dismissing the corruption plank, the anti-corruption movement was being seen as long dead and they were back to treat the Indian masses having short memory believing they would forget the acts of political corruption soon.

Had it been for a poor show by AAP in Delhi, even Anna Hazare’s ongoing fast would not have ensured such a ‘lightening fast’ passage of the Lokpal Bill by the Indian Parliament.

But the Delhi public had an option this time that was ‘unlike’ the others in the political fraternity and though yet to be proven, it went for them.

And that forced the mainstream political class to scramble to ‘at least look sincere’ on coming down heavily on corruption and this forced-necessity pushed them to pass the ‘compromised’ Lokpal Bill, the many provisions of which can still be killer for the corrupt politicians and officials, in a hurry, because there is no time left in the big political battle, the Lok Sabha polls.

Their scare and not their commitment that the centrality of corruption as the poll issue may reflect across the country in the 2014 general elections made them pass the bill in such haste.

And dear political folks, we realise it.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/