A direct message that the BJP is now looking beyond Patels – Patels may be influential but they are just 12-15 percent of the Gujarat population.

Minority (Muslim) and SC voters form another 25 percent. So, that gives the BJP enough space to maneuver for the OBC voters who form the largest chunk of the population – almost 50 percent.

First not succumbing to the Patel agitation pressure – and then not appointing a Patel CM – enough messages to the OBC voters.

Vijay Rupani, the Gujarat CM designate is a career RSS veteran even if he is the first time MLA. When Narendra Modi was made Gujarat CM in 2001, he also had no significant administration of running the political offices of a government. So, there is a precedent and Rupani will face no acceptability problem.

It also shows who is going to be the boss in the next assembly polls scheduled for December 2017 – Amit Shah.

Rupani is seen close to Amit Shah while Anandiben and Amit Shah are bitter rivals. So, it will be basically Amit Shah now who will wield the real power.

To continue..



“I think that is not a very mature suggestion you win a lot of elections you lose some elections so if we start throwing out people after every loss we probably will have nobody to left in the party. So, therefore, in a political election a political party losses an election collectively, it wins an election collectively after all when Prime Minister led the campaign and in 2014 we won are we not all in terms of positions and stature beneficiaries of that and therefore tomorrow or today if we lose an election should we not be collectively responsible for that.”

What else Arun Jaitley or any other senior BJP leader can say publicly – after the rout the party had in Bihar assembly polls.

What Arun Jaitley yesterday said was basically about shielding Narendra Modi and Amit Shah and that leadership of the party that went into milking the cow in Bihar – but it boomeranged.

Till now, every BJP win, post its grand show in the parliamentary polls last year, was being attributed to Amit Shah and every loss, in different bypolls, was being conveniently ignored. The first big loss that came in Delhi early this year, was dismissed as an aberration with debatable points like ‘Congress no show’, ‘RSS disinterests’ and the ‘Kiran Bedi factor’.

But, with Bihar now, that ‘aberration’ can safely be termed a trend and this time, it will be difficult for Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to ignore the ‘writing on the wall’.

Amit Shah runs BJP because he is a trusted Narendra Modi man and BJP leaders trust Narendra Modi because of his ‘vote mobilization’ appeal. Narendra Modi realizes this and also this that he cannot pull a successful draw every time, in every assembly election.

West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam are due next year and the mother of all, Uttar Pradesh, is to see assembly polls in April-May 2017 – and BJP has no chances in all these states except Assam – Narendra Modi knows that.

True, BJP cannot accept it publicly as reflected further in Rajnath Singh’s words, “Winning and losing is part of the game. One cannot pin the blame on the PM. We couldn’t understand the mood (in the state). Social equations were against us in Bihar. I have addressed at least 50 rallies. “

Defending Amit Shah he said, “In BJP, a person can remain President for two consecutive terms. There is no bar. The present tenure of Amit Shah is an ad-hoc period. I mean he is completing my left—over period since the last one-and-a-half years. He can be regular President for two more terms. Unke to 6 saal bache hain (he has six years left).”

It’s all logical and practical what all they are saying. BJP will have to weather hostile and scathing observations from even its senior leaders – L. K. Advani, Murali Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha, Shatrughan Sinha, Shanta Kumar and so on – as we saw this evening – because they all saw dead ends of their political careers with the dawn of Narendra Modi as the only powerful leader of BJP.

They cannot and they should not hit back on that. The best that BJP can do is to remain silent, do an honest introspection and carry out the necessary rectifications it must carry out now.

Even if it chooses to shield its top brass for this Bihar debacle!

How these outcomes reflect on BJP governance and functioning only time will tell.

So far, the day-2 post the Bihar disaster, has given us conflicting signals.

Continuing its run of controversial decisions, especially around communal issues, the party went all out to oppose the ‘Tipu Sultan birth anniversary’ observation by Congress run Karnataka government. Most of us, especially in our generation, know Tipu Sultan as a good, patriotic Indian, thanks to the Doordarshan serial, and we are happy with that. We don’t need unnecessary controversy (or politics), either by BJP or by Congress (after all Congress is also trying to play communal card of appeasement of announcing the Tipu Sultan event after all these years).

On the other hand, the Narendra Modi led government took a much needed, important step this evening. The government relaxed the much delayed foreign direct investment (FDI) limits in 15 significant sectors and we should see this as the beginning of a long delayed reform process.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/



As expected, it has begun.

Amit Shah, the BJP UP in-charge and Narendra Modi’s lieutenant addressed a late night press conference yesterday slamming the District Magistrate of Varanasi, who is also the Returning Officer of Varanasi.

The day saw high pitched protests and pressers by the BJP top brass against the Varanasi DM for denying permission to Narendra Modi rallies in the city, especially at the Benia Bagh Park. Many letters were dashed to the Election Commission demanding action against the DM. Arun Jaitley was on the job till late evening.

The late night presser of Amit Shah was to hit back at the DM after his ‘delayed’ permission late in the evening that left the BJP with no time to manage the Modi rallies tomorrow. Obviously, the ‘Yadav’ surname of Varanasi DM gives the BJP enough edge to sound victimized in this case.

But the war cry the BJP has successfully managed to raise on the issue is basically about the larger picture covering the canvassing base in the remaining seats of the Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar that are to vote on May 12 in the last phase of the General Elections 2014.

Narendra Modi’s victory in Varanasi is an unambiguous outcome, irrespective of the time he has devoted in the city or is to devote in the city. He won the constituency the day he decided to contest from it. The only factor to be seen here is his margin of victory.

Whatever were the intentions and the reasons of the District Magistrate of Varanasi, it gave the BJP an opportunity and they grabbed it, and exploited it efficiently.

Whatever reasoning the Samajwadi Party might have had for pushing the city DM (if it was so, as alleged), it is going to help the BJP only.

And the developments related to the episode have enough fuel to add significantly to the BJP’s possible protests today.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/