Some analysts, including a recent opinion piece in Al Jazeera, predict that South Asia (or more specifically the Indian Subcontinent) is poised to be the next worst crisis hotbed of the world – with the region having three belligerent nuclear power nations who are also neighbours – India, China and Pakistan – with historical border disputes and the enmity thereof that has given rise to many wars and consistent rush of skirmishes.

Well, to clear things first, India and China have had historical enmity and border disputes but both countries are now big enough economies to engage in a full scale bilateral war – China’s is the world’s second largest economy and India is the third largest. They cannot and they should not afford even the border skirmishes now and the recent developments indicate that.

Yes, there are problems but these are now basically rhetorical in nature as China’s authoritarian regime needs some tough posturing to send home the message. Ideally, in the prevailing circumstances, when China is now more of a ‘capitalist’ communist state, things should not go beyond that. And it should be seen in the context of India’s space and military prowess that can harm China enough to come to the negotiating table in case of a full blown war.

The sanctity of China’s authoritarian regime lies in how it manages and grows its economy. The nation certainly cannot afford a Tiananmen now.

And with Pakistan, though China is the country’s historical ally, it is not going to the extent to support Pakistan in case of any hostility with India – coupled with the fact the US is now there to support India against China. Also, China is facing Muslim insurgency in its Muslim dominated regions that gets lifeline from Pakistan.

Any military confrontation between India and China is damaging for the economies of both of the nations and they will not risk it – let alone the spectre of full scale war.

And if a military confrontation will be damaging for India, it will be annihilating for Pakistan. A blown out hostility or a full scale war with a bigger country that is many times you militarily and economically will be like inviting ‘the end of days’ for its all ‘powerful’ military that now stands nowhere near to India.

The future of the Indian Subcontinent will be driven by these ground-based realities – and the spectre of an economic meltdown thereof – and not by the incessant war rhetoric of Pakistan – and not by the toughly-worded posturing by India and China.

So, where are the next real crisis hotbeds – the conflict theatres so volatile that they can send the world upside down – a world bound by a globalized economy – the Korean Peninsula – or the South China Sea?

The ‘capitalist’ communist logic with China applies even here. But, certainly, we all need to be worried about North Korea and its young, obese, morose but mercurial dictator who is also insane.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/


Statistical commoditization of human lives – from the Indian poverty Lines to the innocent human lives killed and mutilated in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Somalia, Congo (DPR), Sudan, Nigeria and many other African and Asian countries and elsewhere – to the recently spiraled moments of crisis in Gaza, in Ukraine and the Flight MH17 crash after taking a sophisticated missile hit at 30,000 feet in – loss of human lives – always manipulated and used to further self-serving agendas – of dictators, of global superpowers.

Manipulative wisdom of statistics to alter the scale and aftermath of human lives killed or taken away – lives reduced to numbers – my count, your count, their count and the loss of haves and have-nots – the deepening culture of ‘let go’ in the global geopolitics – don’t be surprised if it gives us the next Peace Nobel Laureate – recognizing the culture of non-interventionism in the name of global order even if it means hundreds of thousands killed every year in civil wars, in terror strikes and in religious/sectarian divides.

And if we talk of the big powers, the nations that affect and effect the balance of the global order the most, all are to share the blame – each one is culpable – because each one has manipulated and the circumstances and geopolitical factors to gain upper hand over the others – in history – and in modern times – MH17 and Ukraine are Russian designs – Bashar Al-Assad’s Syria of the day is Russian effect – the origin of the Afghanistan is USSR – the oil politics of the global powers has given the world the worst of the dictators from the oil rich Arabian and Middle East countries – Ukraine crisis is because the powerful European nations (heavily dependent on Russia for energy needs) preferred not to act tough on Russia – rich Islamic nations are the mainstay of the financial backbone of the terrorism in the name of Jihad – and the failure of the US administration in stopping Israel from launching the recent drive of the Gaza offensive.

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