WHAT IF BJP FAILS TO PERFORM IN KASHMIR VALLEY WHILE WINNING OTHER AREAS OF THE STATE?

THE QUESTIONS

1. What if BJP emerges close second to PDP in the final poll outcome, will it be ‘BJP+PDP’ from ‘BJP Vs PDP’ or ‘PDP+Congress’ or PDP with any other combination?

2. In case of no clear numbers, what options BJP would be left with? Congress and National Conference won’t come and BJP won’t go with them. PDP is hinting of going along with BJP but that would mean BJP putting its ideological issues like its stand on Article 370 to back seat for an infinite period in the foreseeable future. Given the fact that Narendra Modi didn’t mention the issue even once while campaigning in the state, it should not be a problem area for BJP. In return, PDP may leave its ‘remove AFSPA’ demand under an agreed framework. 

3. But would people of the Valley, the electorate there, would accept this, given the poll outcome from the J&K region, that has totally rejected BJP one again?

4. Wouldn’t it be PDP betraying the Valley electorate? Won’t they prefer ‘PDP+Congress’ or even ‘PDP+NC’ than ‘PDP+BJP’? 

5. Also, should BJP sacrifice its ideology on Article 370 that is certainly not on the communal lines here, to join the government in J&K?

6. Would RSS allow that? How important a factor RSS will be when it comes to this?

7. Will it not prove again that BJP has failed to win the confidence of Muslims once again, a must for the democratic fabric of the country, in spite of all its claims?

8. Performing badly in Muslim-dominating region of the state – has the ongoing controversy surrounding religious conversions and the incessant pushing of the Hindu Nation/Nationalism agenda are to blame?

9. Isn’t it, again, a warning for Narendra Modi to rein in the radical/fundamentalist voices? More than anything else, it is his promise, and his legacy that it is going to be, that are at stake. The unexpected clear majority to BJP was in fact clear majority to the ‘prime minister’ Narendra Modi.

10. Would it work further to dent/undermine the Modi Wave/Modi Factor nationally?

11. Or BJP emerging a close second, an unparalleled performance by the party given its past record in the state, would it further consolidate the Modi Wave/Modi Factor?

12. The hung outcome with a clear Jammu Vs Kashmir outcome – wouldn’t it again add fuel to the fire to the debates of dividing Jammu & Kashmir into Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh given the fact the ethically different regions have been performing differently, electorally, politically, consistently?

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey –https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

THE TALKING POINTS ON J&K POLL OUTCONE(S), TILL THE RESULTS COME

THE QUESTIONS

The most talked-about talking point in the J&K assembly election has been about BJP’s prospects after its ‘much’ better than expected Lok Sabha poll performance, it’s almost clean sweep in Uttar Pradesh, it’s spectacular show in Haryana, it’s victory as the senior partner in the Maharashtra government and it’s Narendra Modi Wave/Factor.

The outcomes, before the outcomes finally come, are being seen and discussed mainly from this angle – how well BJP does – by all the stakeholders involved – from society, from polity, from advocacy, from media.

The central themes of these discourses are:

1. What if BJP performs poorly, left with what it has had so far in the state, or even worse?

2. What if BJP performs well only in the non-Muslim areas of the state?

3. What if BJP still fails to open its account in the Muslim dominated Kashmir Valley?

4. What if BJP wins numbers, even if not the majority numbers, numbers that give it the position to manage the numbers to form the government?

5. What if BJP manages the numbers on its own – accomplishing it’s ‘Mission 44+’? 

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey –https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

WHAT IF BJP MANAGES NUMBERS TO FORM GOVERNMENT IN J&K OR EMERGES AS THE MAIN POLITICAL OPPOSITION?

THE QUESTIONS

1. What if BJP emerges with numbers to form the government in Jammu & Kashmir?

2. If it indeed happens, will it be another testimony to the Modi Wave/Modi Factor?

3. What will/should matter more for BJP – the final outcome or the way to final outcome? Even if it emerges as the second largest party as the exit polls project, it is expected to have numbers to manage the numbers to form the government in the state.

4. What if BJP wins numbers on its own? Will it follow what it has been saying – on Article 370 and other important issues related to the state?

5. Or, will it be forced to continue with the stand that it had to adopt before approaching the elections – putting on hold, looking to ensure the ground first – with fears of civil unrest in the Valley?

6. What will happen to the BJP agenda on Article 370 if it forms a government in coalition with other stakeholders in the state?

7. Can this ‘ideological’ issue for BJP take back seat given the fact that Narendra Modi and the Union Government have failed, so far, in containing the provocative remarks and acts of Hindu nationalism by RSS, its affiliates and some BJP members.

8. What if BJP is not able to form the government but registers a fascinating show by emerging as the second largest party in J&K, an allegedly communal party with Hindu Nationalism elements in the only Muslim state of India, wouldn’t it be a big achievement for such a party even if it scores a handsome second place that doesn’t allow it to form the government, given the fact that it will be doing so at the cost of one mainstream J&K party (National Conference, in government now) and Congress, the national party and a big political force in J&K so far?

9. BJP winning or becoming the main political opposition – will it alter the political discourse in India?

10. How will it alter the political discourse in India – has it the potential to rewrite the ‘secular Vs Communal’ discourse in Indian polity?

11. BJP winning or becoming the main political opposition – if it happens so, will it result in increased acceptability for BJP giving it the makeover of being a national party with presence across India and across religions?

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/