WHAT IF BJP FAILS TO PERFORM IN KASHMIR VALLEY WHILE WINNING OTHER AREAS OF THE STATE?

THE QUESTIONS

1. What if BJP emerges close second to PDP in the final poll outcome, will it be ‘BJP+PDP’ from ‘BJP Vs PDP’ or ‘PDP+Congress’ or PDP with any other combination?

2. In case of no clear numbers, what options BJP would be left with? Congress and National Conference won’t come and BJP won’t go with them. PDP is hinting of going along with BJP but that would mean BJP putting its ideological issues like its stand on Article 370 to back seat for an infinite period in the foreseeable future. Given the fact that Narendra Modi didn’t mention the issue even once while campaigning in the state, it should not be a problem area for BJP. In return, PDP may leave its ‘remove AFSPA’ demand under an agreed framework. 

3. But would people of the Valley, the electorate there, would accept this, given the poll outcome from the J&K region, that has totally rejected BJP one again?

4. Wouldn’t it be PDP betraying the Valley electorate? Won’t they prefer ‘PDP+Congress’ or even ‘PDP+NC’ than ‘PDP+BJP’? 

5. Also, should BJP sacrifice its ideology on Article 370 that is certainly not on the communal lines here, to join the government in J&K?

6. Would RSS allow that? How important a factor RSS will be when it comes to this?

7. Will it not prove again that BJP has failed to win the confidence of Muslims once again, a must for the democratic fabric of the country, in spite of all its claims?

8. Performing badly in Muslim-dominating region of the state – has the ongoing controversy surrounding religious conversions and the incessant pushing of the Hindu Nation/Nationalism agenda are to blame?

9. Isn’t it, again, a warning for Narendra Modi to rein in the radical/fundamentalist voices? More than anything else, it is his promise, and his legacy that it is going to be, that are at stake. The unexpected clear majority to BJP was in fact clear majority to the ‘prime minister’ Narendra Modi.

10. Would it work further to dent/undermine the Modi Wave/Modi Factor nationally?

11. Or BJP emerging a close second, an unparalleled performance by the party given its past record in the state, would it further consolidate the Modi Wave/Modi Factor?

12. The hung outcome with a clear Jammu Vs Kashmir outcome – wouldn’t it again add fuel to the fire to the debates of dividing Jammu & Kashmir into Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh given the fact the ethically different regions have been performing differently, electorally, politically, consistently?

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey –https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

MAHARASHTRA AND HARYANA VERDICTS AND MODI WAVE

Narendra Modi didn’t campaign (or intensively campaigned) in the bye-elections held after BJP’s high voltage performance in the Lok Sabha election 2014 that made it the first party to get majority on its own after 1985.

And BJP languished in these bye-elections – first in Uttarakhand, then in four states including Bihar, and then in 9 states including Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and West Bengal.

The negative talking points against BJP’s performance simply outnumbered the few positives that it gained in these bye-elections with the later two important bypolls seen and analysed as ‘acid test’ or ‘semi final’ or ‘test of the Modi Wave’ before the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand.

And BJP failed in these ‘semi-final’ sort of tests. Bypoll verdicts gave voices to everyone. Congress, JDU, Samajwadi Party, RJD, Shiv Sena, and other parties and the leaders of these outfits. They took on BJP with their customized reasons.

But the undercurrent was – assembly polls were different than parliamentary elections and BJP needed its allies. And the favourite talking point of the opponents was – Modi Wave was receding or had gone away, especially after poor show in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar bypolls.

But did Narendra Modi and the Modi Wave fail?

No. The Maharashtra and Haryana poll verdicts say so.

Modi campaigned extensively in these assembly polls, inviting sarcastic remarks from his opponents and allies that he should have stayed focused on delivering in Delhi. But Modi, in his workaholic work style, stayed focused on delivering his speeches reaching out to the electorate. And he promised what was his central plank during the Lok Sabha poll campaigning.

And BJP has registered historic victories in Harayana and Maharashtra assembly polls today.

It is to be seen in the context that BJP had no major political figure in these two states and the party had contested without projecting any chief-ministerial candidates. The central theme of campaigning was Narendra Modi. The party asked for votes in Narendra Modi’s name. And Narendra Modi was there, to establish direct contact. He exploited well the supporting but vital factors like anti-incumbency, government corruption and poor governance.

The analysis into the voting trends shows it has been like the Lok Sabha elections, beyond the boundaries of caste and regional considerations – voting in the name of the politics of development.

Electorate in the Lok Sabha elections bought what Modi promised and voters in these two assembly polls have once again expressed their faith in Modi and like the Lok Sabha elections, even in Maharashtra and Haryana, the ground earned by BJP was much beyond the BJP’s claim in these two states based on the party’s political history.

The verdicts today re-establish the Modi Wave discourse as the central theme of political analyses on upcoming elections, Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: UPDATES 7 PM TO 9 PM

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

#Congress and #SP rout in #UP makes it family affair for them. They fail to win any other constituency that the seats of Gandhi family (2 seats) and Yadav family (5 seats) members.

#Varanasi @ 7:42 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 3.36 lakh votes – 516593 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 179739 votes; Ajai Rai – 68080 votes; BSP – 57531 votes; SP – 42242 votes. Final tally not declared yet.

#Vadodara @ 7:42 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 5.7 lakh votes – 845464 votes; Madhusudan Mistry of #INC – 275336 votes. Mistry is #Congress’ UP in-charge. Final tally not declared yet.
@ 7:54 PM – #Modi leads his constituencies – #Varanasi by over 3.36 lakh votes and #Vadodara by 5.7 lakh votes. Mulayam leads his constituencies – #Azamgarh by 63000 votes and #Mainpuri by 3.64 lakh votes. The contrast and the difference on the scale of acceptability is clear.

Rahul Gandhi had won Amethi by 3.7 lakh votes in 2009 with 72% vote share. In 2014, his lead @8 PM is 1 Lakh votes, and it is to remain at this level. BJP’s Smriti Irani gave him good fight and run for time and money.

#Modi is expected to get around 60% of votes in Varanasi. Twice before it, candidates in Varanasi have got more than 60% votes – Chandra Shekhar in 1977 (Bhartiya Lok Dal-66.22%) and Anil Shastri in 1989 (Janta Dal-62.31%).

Narendra Modi is now the PM-designate of India. He is expected to take oath on May 21.
He delivered his victory speech in #Vadodara, where, once again, he repeated his favourite line that was just a labourer. Hope, the sanity remains and prevails in the days to come. Hope, he delivers on the sky-high promises and expectation. He needs to deliver for India, for #Varanasi. Otherwise, the trend is becoming clear for the non-performing and manipulating politicians in India.

@ 9 PM – Varanasi tally remains the same – #Modi leads #Varanasi by over 3.36 lakh votes. Arvind Kejriwal is No.2. He did satisfactorily by scoring 1.8 lakh votes. Ajai Rai came a poor 3rd in spite of INC’s all efforts. Thankfully, the regional parties, SP and BSP, with no development agenda were pushed to be at 4th n 5th spots by the voters.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: UPDATES 4 PM TO 7 PM

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

#BJP is to make clean sweep in 6 states, #Gujarat, #Rajasthan, #Delhi, #Uttarakhand, #Himachal Pradesh, #Goa, and 6 union territories (obviously for records only, because except all are single seat constituencies).

#Congress is in imminent danger of losing the ‘leader of opposition’ position. Trends now give it less than 10% of 543 Lok Sabha seats. Having 10% of the seats is the requirement set for a party to have the leader of opposition from its ranks.

Total votes of #Kejriwal, #INC, SP and BSP in #Varanasi, 2.6 lakh, is much less than around 3.5 lakh Muslim votes of Varanasi.

Sonia, Rahul speaking. Take responsibility of Congress drubbing. Let’s see the composition of the message.

#Congress comes 3rd in all seats of #Delhi. From 7-0 in 2009, it is 0-7 for the party now.

Rabri Devi loses. #BJP’s Rajiv Pratap Rudy takes winning lead of over 50000 votes. Lalu’s ‘samosa’ didn’t get extra ‘aalu’ (potato).

#Varanasi @ 5:22 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 3.12 lakh votes – 484726 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 172273 votes; Ajai Rai – 65243 votes; BSP – 53944 votes; SP – 40628 votes. #Congress regains 3rd position.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: UPDATES 2 PM TO 4 PM

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

#Varanasi @ 2:09 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 1.7 lakh votes – 243039 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 69551 votes; BSP – 29711 votes; Ajai Rai – 26516 votes; SP – 21075 votes.

Jaswant Singh loses #Barmer. He should have won. His #BJP rehabilitation still possible?

Most of the #INC, #Congress young guns bite the dust – most of them the dynasty products – a welcome development.

Arun Jaitley’s loss from #Amritsar was expected. But he is still expected to be among the senior most ministers of Modi Cabinet.

Bravo! Salman Khurshid loses and loses big, deposit forfeited in #Farrukhabad. Now, this is brilliant. Real scoop. Real good news. His arrogance sucks.

#Varanasi @ 3:39 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 2.5 lakh votes – 357680 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 106828 votes; BSP – 44671 votes; Ajai Rai – 39723 votes; SP – 30997 votes.

Another arrogant leader of Congress, Mani Shankar Aiyar loses from #Mayiladuthurai in Tamil Nadu. He would certainly be thinking about his chai-walla jibe on #Modi.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: UPDATES 12 PM TO 2 PM

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

Rahul Gandhi’s lead in #Amethi is just over 2000 votes as of now. What are we going to have in store?

Varanasi at 11.24 AM: Narendra Modi – 62218 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 18322 votes; Ajai Rai – 8037 votes; BSP – 5884 votes; SP – 4784 votes.

After the counting day trends, the scramble for Narendra Modi’s Cabinet, is going to make for the headlines next. #ModiCabinet and Modi Cabinet are going to be the top trends.

#BJP wins another much talked about constituency – #Ghaziabad. V K Singh wins by around 50000 votes.

#NarendraModi leading in #Varanasi by 50000 votes as of now. Around 6.5 lakh votes yet to be counted.

Mulayam Singh Yadav leading #Azamgarh by 17000 votes. BSP 2nd. Sitting BJP MP 3rd.

Rajnath Singh leading #Lucknow by 32000 votes. INC 2nd. BSP distant 3rd.

Murli Manohar Joshi poised to win #Kanpur. Joshi leading by 50000 votes with 1.33 lakh votes. Sriprakash Jaiswal 2nd. BSP distant 3rd.

#BJP poised to win riots affected #Muzaffarnagar from #BSP. Polarisation worked.

#NarendraModi formally wins #Varanasi. That was beyond doubt. Let’s see the final tally on margin. It should justify the Modi Wave. BSP won it last time.

#BJP winning another riots affected seat, #Kairana. BJP candidate leading the constituency with the winning majority of over 1.3 lakh votes. BSP won it last time.
#Results2014, #Verdict2014

Given the defining trends, it is to be said now the Modi Factor could transform into ‘Modi Wave’ to sweep India. India is going to have its most stable govt in 30 years (after 1984) decades. And moreover, it is going to be largely free of coalition compulsions.

Sonia Gandhi gains winning lead in Rae Bareli. But, can she equal the 3.72 lakh margin of 2009. She got 72% votes while the runner-up could get 16% votes.

#UP, #Bihar game-plan clicks for the #BJP, playing pivotal role in BJP’s never before seen, stellar performance.

#Varanasi @ 1:09 PM: Narendra Modi leads by over 1.14 lakh votes – 167646 votes; Arvind Kejriwal – 53540 votes; BSP – 21361 votes; Ajai Rai – 19669 votes; SP – 16305 votes. #Congress pushed to 4th place by votes as of now.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

COUNTING DAY: UPDATES TILL 12 PM

GENERAL ELECTIONS 2014

Party hopper, alliance hopper, and one of the most well read of the politicians, and the civil aviation minister, Ajit Singh loses Baghpat. The Harit Pradesh politics is to heat up, courtesy his increases spare time now.

#NarendraModi wins #Vadodara by margin of over 4 lakh votes.

Counting Day trends are bettering the Exit Polls projections for #BJP and #NDA as of now. And #UPA big guns are trailing.

Sanjay Jha is on Times Now. How stubborn and silly at times #INC makes its spokespersons, Jha is a classic example. And INC (Indian National Congress) has plenty of them.

‘Save Rahul’ scramble to come in its totality.

#BJP wins #Chandigarh. Railgate eats into Pawan Bansal’s pie.

It would be interesting to hear the Congressmen like Salman Khurshid, Beni Prasad Verma, Sanjay Jha, Kapil Sibal, P Chidambaram, Digvijay Singh, Randeep Surjewala, Satyavrat Chaturvedi, Janardhan Dwivedi, Salman Soj and yes, Ajay Maken. Grab them. Don’t let them disappear like #SoniaGandhi and #RahulGandhi disappeared from the posters at #INC HQ.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/