IF JDU-RJD-CONGRESS ALLIANCE GETS CLEAR MANDATE IN BIHAR?

WHAT IT TELLS ABOUT NATION’S POLITICS AND SOCIETY..

Given the fact that the broad issues that the Bihar elections are pinned on revolve around caste, religion and community arithmetic, the outcome of the polls will be interesting to watch for how they would affect the further political discourse in the country on some issues doing rounds in the national consciousness.

— The poll result will, first of all, tell vehemently that the Delhi poll debacle was not an aberration but was a clear indication of things and days to come – an ominous signal which was conveniently ignored by BJP. The logic will be supported well by BJP’s poor show in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra civic polls which preceded the ‘no-go’ in Bihar.

— The most worrying social aspect of it is that the country is indeed going through a rough patch with real threat of communal and caste-based flare-ups if the fringe elements and intolerant voices are not reined in now.

— The message will be that people are not taking developments like FTII row or appointments to other institutions, JNU row, reservation policy row or the ongoing legacy wars to claim legacies of the political luminaries from the country’s past.

— It will be a direct testimony on BJP’s performance. The message will be that the NDA government, so far, has failed to perform effectively on its promises of governance and development. BJP lost even in Jayapur in Panchayat polls, a village adopted by Narendra Modi in his parliamentary constituency Varanasi. It will further reinforce the demand that people need concrete development now, not even a blueprint will do.

— Narendra Modi will need to do some serious thinking about his political branding and imagery now, given the fact that the Bihar assembly election was basically a direct personal fight between Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, the chief minister of Bihar from JDU. Nitish had left the JDU-BJP alliance in Bihar on NDA’s projection of Narendra Modi as its prime-ministerial candidate and had stepped down after JDU’s crushing defeat in the Lok Sabha election last year. Also, it is not about other BJP leaders but about Narendra Modi. People have given BJP absolute majority because of Narendra Modi and Narendra Modi will obviously be worried about his political legacy.

— We can soon see Shiv Sena walking out of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra. The alliance has been in consistent controversies ever since the two old alliance partners came together again last year. Shiv Sena, the big brother-turned-humiliated-junior partner in Maharashtra is freshly recharged from its gains in Maharashtra civic polls, the first big shot post Maharashtra assembly polls in 2014, the polls in which BJP has performed poorly. The ongoing war of words between Uddhav Thakeray, the Shiv Sena chief, and Devendra Fadnavis, the Maharashtra chief minister, may precipitate into something big soon.

— The outcome will make it mandatory for BJP to do course correction with its politics, especially in the light of the upcoming assembly elections in Punjab (2016) and Uttar Pradesh (2017) – with realizations and changed requirements post the debacle in the Bihar assembly polls. BJP’s alliance with SAD in Punjab is not so smooth and the party has lost every subsequent election in UP after the grand show in the Lok Sabha election in May 2014.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

IF NDA GETS CLEAR MANDATE IN BIHAR?

WHAT IT TELLS ABOUT NATION’S POLITICS AND SOCIETY..

Given the fact that the broad issues that the Bihar elections are pinned on revolve around caste, religion and community arithmetic, the outcome of the polls will be interesting to watch for how they would affect the further political discourse in the country on some issues doing rounds in the national consciousness.

— The outcome will convey the message that the situation is not as bad as is being projected – that the ‘growing culture of intolerance’ or ‘strengthening fringe voices’, though disturbing, are not disturbing enough to affect the electoral mindsets yet – something that is the primary or the only electoral concern of every political outfit.

— Or there has been no such atmosphere on the ground expect some standalone incidents and what has been presented so far on this front, is basically a splendid political imagination and propaganda.

— That, BJP’s humiliating loss in the Delhi assembly polls was more an aberration than a trend – and that BJP is performing well on its promises. The party would then emphatically like to convey that Delhi’s loss was basically due to ‘lock stock and barrel’ transfer of Congress votes to Aam Aadmi Party and not due to its ‘alleged’ non-performance in Delhi through the Lieutenant-Governor’s office or due to the negative impact that the growing fringe voice brought home. To support this, the party has in its courtyard the evergreen logic that its vote share remained the same, even if it could register win in just three assembly seats.

— That, the country’s society is getting more open about the ‘reservation debate’ – that the widespread social feeling is in sync with the deepening perception that the ‘whole affirmative action policymaking’ needs an overhaul now – after decades of ‘status quo’ compromised by political compulsions.

— That Narendra Modi is still the most popular political leader of India and still commands people’s trust.

— That BJP still has better chances to fight and win the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls, something that will further bolster its claims to retake the Indian Parliament again in 2019 General Elections.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/