WHATS TRENDING ON 65TH REPUBLIC DAY: CHAI WALLAH VS ASPIRING COMMON MAN VS MUFFLER WALLAH

-The ‘Chai Wallah’ Vs the Aspiring Common Man (the Prince) Vs the ‘Muffler Wallah’-

Irrespective of the Congress party not declaring Rahul Gandhi its prime-ministerial nominee and irrespective of Rahul Gandhi saying again and again that ‘power is poison and he is not for the post’, as he said again in his first formal interview to a TV channel, it is going to be Narendra Modi Vs Rahul Gandhi in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

At the moment, the balance is heavily tilted in favour of Narendra Modi after the assembly election results of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi in December last year when BJP registered a good (better than expected in some cases) performance while Congress saw humiliation, to the extent of absolute rejection.

Before, that, though Modi was still far ahead in different popularity surveys, the opinionating was not so skewed and the Rahul Factor was being talked about seriously.

That has seen a reasonable dent now.

But, still, the Congress party has no other alternative than to project Rahul Gandhi, officially or unofficially, hoping some political windfall in the last moments that may help the Rahul Factor sail through the political storm of the Lok Sabha polls 2014.

For Congress, still, the First Family comes first, when it comes to the moments of crisis, as is the case now, with a Congress led coalition government facing historically low credibility crisis and sky-high anti-incumbency.

So, irrespective of whether it is or it is not, it is going to be Rahul Gandhi Vs Narendra Modi.

And what about ‘Rahul Gandhi Vs Narendra Modi Vs Arvind Kejriwal’ hypothesis for the prime-ministerial chair of the country?

The option with ‘Vs Kejriwal’ in picture is more for the analysts and pundits who are going to come with their psephological, sociopolitical and sociological viewpoints before the elections, factoring in the ‘Kejriwal Factor (or AAP Factor) after the stunning success of the Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi assembly elections.

So, even if a ‘Kejriwal Factor’ is non-existent or is having absolutely low recall intensity beyond Delhi-NCR and some urban pockets, it is going to be in news and discussions until the Lok Sabha poll results come. Also, the growing base of controversies against AAP, in just 30 days of it coming to power in Delhi, has corroded the national ambitions of the new party in real terms. Now, they need to deliver Delhi first.

Therefore, for voters spread across the villages, towns, cities and metro cities, it is mainly going to be Narendra Modi Vs Rahul Gandhi.

For certain populations spread across certain geographical localities, and for the discourse utility of the Kejriwal Factor for political discussions on TV news channels and other media vehicles, it is going to be Rahul Gandhi Vs Narendra Modi Vs Arvind Kejriwal.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

TO 2014: NARENDRA MODI VS RAHUL GANDHI – WHERE MODI SCORES

Midst the growing clamour in Bhartiya Janta Party of making Narendra Modi the prime-ministerial candidate for the 2014 general elections, he landed in Delhi yesterday. He met the prime-minister and addressed a jam-packed audience at the Sri Ram College of Commerce of Delhi University. Like his proven ability, he delivered a speech that had the audience glued.

And like any Modi movement, the hyperactive media went in frenzy. Modi was all across, painting every news website, inhabiting every news channel. Expect the printed word following the trend when the newspapers come to stands.

Predictably, the focal point was the ‘prospect and contention’ on Narendra Modi’s prime-ministerial candidature and obvious cropping-up of his comparison with Rahul Gandhi.

As the equations and the goings of the moment say, Narendra Modi is having the clear advantage when we project the elements for 2014. Almost every survey report declares him the most popular leader in the country and the most preferred choice as the next prime minister. And it is not without the elements of reason.

Rahul’s chances are fishy. He figures in every such report but Modi has been able to maintain and widen the gap.

So, what are the principle elements that place him ahead of Rahul Gandhi? I see three as the cardinal ones.(Sure, more can be added.)

POLITICAL CAREER – THE ROLE MODEL STUFF

Modi has risen from nowhere, from a family that belonged to the lower stratum of India’s multilayered social weaving. He began his political career as a nonentity, the office boy of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). The journey to the political top has been gradually scaled up with hardwork, nothing like a fairytale. That makes Modi role model for millions in a rich country of poor people.

Rahul’s background is elitist. No matter how many night-outs at Dalit huts, he is not going to be able to change this perception. The skepticism only aggravates given Rahul’s short career in active politics that is absolutely short of any significant political and social achievement. Instead, Rahul has, in his account, social blunders like Kalawati, Maval and Bhatta Parsaul. Also, the country is still unaware of Rahul’s intellectual credentials. Rahul may be a political alternative given his Nehru-Gandhi lineage but everything else in his record-book scuttles his chances to be seen as a role model.

ELECTORAL PERFORMANCE

Modi has a proven political track record with three consecutive electoral victories. And mind you, these all have been convincing victories, routing not just the opposition parties, but also the factionalism in his own party fueled by big names including a former chief minister and influential community leader. Also, in last two elections, even the RSS worked anti to him.

Rahul has big electoral failures in his name since he started taking centrestage of the election campaigning for the Congress party. The most notable ones are Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Some assembly victories that came to the Congress party cannot be accorded to Rahul’s stature.

Modi is high on confidence. Rahul must be in introspection mode if he has to do the damage control. Complacency is going to be big killer adding to the misery in an election where the Congress party’s prospects are already being written off.

KNOWING THE CONTEXT – THE EFFECTIVE OUTREACH

Modi is cunningly brilliant to exploit the words of others to his own advantage. He plays the victim card, impregnated with the religious sentiments, subtly well. He knows what to say and how to package his message keeping in mind the audience. He shows a craftsmanship of a corporate communicator here.

On the other hand, Rahul has failed again and again on this front. The emotional quotient that happened to the high point of his political speeches when he had begun his active politics career has become a worn-out and tired element of repetition, added and fueled by poor audience research and lost context. Now Rahul’s speeches attract attention more for their lack of depth and misplaced mode of delivery.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/