YADAVS’ FIRST FAMILY: A CARTOONIST’S DELIGHT :)

Well, that is exactly what has happened with recent events – developments, statements and even silence – everything gives an interesting sense of déjà vu. Everything has happened as it was thought to be – but with loads of moments that are pure delight for any cartoonist with an eye for political humour and satire.

We can say,

PAL MEIN TOLA PAL MEIN MASHA, KITNE RANG BADALTE HAIN.

SOMETIMES THEY PLAY FAST. SOMETIMES THEY PLAY LOOSE. HOW MANY COLOURS THEY CHANGE?

Or

(SOMETIMES IT PLAYS FAST. SOMETIMES IT PLAYS LOOSE. HOW MANY COLOURS IT CHANGES?)

Any which way you want to say 🙂

Or we can say,

A FAMILY THAT SPARS TOGETHER, SPEARS TOGETHER.

Or we can say,

A FAMILY THAT PRAYS TOGETHER, AFFRAYS TOGETHER.

Or we can say,

A FAMILY THAT PLAYS TOGETHER, DISPLAYS IT TOGETHER.

Or we can the staple one 🙂 🙂

A FAMILY..THAT DISAGREES TO DISAGREE.

muakhishiv-1

(CARTOON BY RAGINI CHAUBEY)

YADAVS’ FIRST FAMILY: A CARTOONIST’S DELIGHT 🙂

©SantoshChaubey

WHICH WAY MULAYAM WOULD GO TODAY?

So, yesterday was a day of intense drama, revenge sackings, letter wars and war of words in the ongoing family feud in Uttar Pradesh’s first family to wrest the power. And today could be even more fiery, even more spiteful, even more dramatic, even more shocking, depending on which way Mulayam decides to go, and in turn, depending on that, which way Akhilesh would go.

Let’s do some wise (wild guessing).

This morning when Mulayam Singh Yadav will speak on the controversy after meeting his party’s MLAs and MLCs, it will have the hangover of the meeting of the day and of the developments yesterday we can say.

Will Mulayam speak his mind irrespective of which way the meetings goes, with Akhilesh’s power display or Shivpal’s show of loyalty?

Or his final word will become final after he assesses the mood in his party – that who carries more weight now – Akhilesh or Shivpal?

Whatever happens, one things is sure that it will write the next chapter in the script of the Samajwadi Party family feud.

Harm has to happen. Votes will split. Irrespective of which way Mulayam decides to go. What he can hope at best – that the repercussions will not last long.

And one thing – Mulayam is not going to replace Akhilesh with himself as UP’s next CM.

©SantoshChaubey

A WORSE SEPTEMBER 13 REDUX: AKHILESH SACKS UNCLE SHIVPAL THIS TIME

Going a step further this time, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has sacked his uncle and the most senior minister of his cabinet, Shivpal Yadav, who is also the state president of his Samajwadi Party, the ruling political outfit of UP led by Mulayam Singh Yadav, a position that previously Akhilesh held.

This time, it is a worse sort of split.

Last time, on September 13, Akhilesh had, first sacked the UP chief secretary Deepak Singhal, considered close to Shivpal, and then had stripped Shivpal of his entire ministerial portfolio (but had not sacked him).

Protesting this, in a late night drama, on September 15, Shivpal had resigned from both positions, as the SP’s UP state president and as UP’s cabinet minister. Amar Singh was being relentlessly targeted by Akhilesh supporters for creating this havoc in the party.

Next day, on September 16, Mulayam had rejected Shivpal’s resignation. Led by Mulayam, the party patriarch, Akhilesh’s father and Shivpal’s brother, a deal sort of arrangement was brokered and it was announced from Akhilesh’s office that Shivpal and the controversial UP minister Gayatri Prajapati, close to Shivpal, would be reinstated and Shivpal would be given back his portfolios.

Now that today, on October 23, 45 days after September 13, Akhilesh has gone a step further and has sacked Shivpal Yadav from his ministerial berth, as well three others including Jaya Prada (Amar Singh confidante), vocally targeting Amar Singh this time, we can gauge the obvious fact that it was just a temporary arrangement last month which had came at the cost of humiliating Akhilesh’s self-respect. So there doesn’t arise any question of Shivpal’s resignation now. He has been shown the door in clear, unequivocal terms this time.

There was never a ‘peace’ deal. After Shivpal was reinstated, he did everything that he could to downsize Akhilesh’s stature – sacking/expelling people from the SP who were seen close to Akhilesh, replacing names who were seen as Akhilesh Yadav’s people from the party’s list of candidates for the upcoming UP assembly polls and successfully reengineering Quami Ekta Dal’s (QED) merger into the SP fold which was foiled by Akhilesh in June as the QED is seen a front for the dreaded gangster Mukhtar Ansari.

So, what Akhilesh has done today was waiting to happen.

Akhilesh, on his part, has said that he will not leave the SP and will purge everyone who is seen close to Amar Singh.

But a vertical split is the most likely outcome in these circumstances.

If Mulayam continues with the stand he had taken last month, Akhilesh will be forced to find his own separate way.

Can Mulayam replace Akhilesh as UP CM, as Shivpal supporters have been demanding, when elections are just three-four months away?

Is Mulayam still confident enough that it is he in whose name people vote for the SP?

If Mulayam favours his son this time, Shivpal Yadav is expected to cause a vertical split in the party.

And whatever has to happen will happen soon as the UP assembly polls are just around the corner where the SP, with a huge anti-incumbency, is pitted against two formidable foes, the BJP whom the first round of opinion polls have shown winning the state, and the BSP, a favourite of analysts this time to win the polls – with its Dalit-Muslim social engineering.

©SantoshChaubey

JANATA DAL: 1988 TO 2015 – THE STORY REMAINS THE SAME

After much downs and few ups, six factions of the erstwhile ‘Janata Dal’ or evergreen ‘Janata Parivar’ came together to save India’s secular fabric – at least that is what they had claim.

And in process, they thought, they could make a front to revive their dwindling political futures.

But they could not or did not deliberate on ‘state Vs national’ aspect of their ‘coming together’.

Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and Janata Dal (United) in Bihar are fighting to win the upcoming elections in their respective states.

An assembly election loss, after a humiliating show in the Lok Sabha polls last year, would be a heavy burden for Samajwadi Party to bear. The party may not recover from it. Losing assembly polls in Bihar, after complete decimation in the Lok Sabha polls, will make Nitish Kumar and Janata Dal (United), irrelevant in national and state politics.

Rashtriya Janata Dal, after Lalu Yadav’s conviction in fodder scam, is fighting a battle that he has already lost. An association with his corruption taint may be detrimental electorally. Samajwadi Janata Party exists only in three words, literally. Janata Dal (Secular) is losing its appeal in Karnataka.

The family head of the family show, Indian National Lok Dal, has been jailed for 10 years in a corruption case and his party failed to make any mark in the Lok Sabha as well as in the assembly polls.

And these six parties came together to form a combined entity together.

But it was an alliance of political opportunism with no political pragmatism.

Primary issues, potent enough to derail the process, like name, symbol and main party office of the new political entity were not worked out. And they remain elusive.

On ground, four of these parties have no or very less political currency left. RJD may work some political miracle given the prominence of ‘caste factor’ in the Bihar polls, but even that is not possible for others of the lot.

SP and JD(U) are restricted to UP and Bihar only – in their respective states. And they are fighting battles of political survival in retaining these states.

So, there is no conflict of interest – at least politically. SP can help JD(U) and RJD in Bihar and these two parties can do the same for SP in UP. But that needs prior understanding, that wasn’t tried to work out before the ‘grand Janata Parivar merger’ was announced.

After he left Congress, Vishwanath Pratap Singh had formed Janata Dal in 1988 to extend his political interests and as there was no ideology behind the move but a political purpose to somehow form the government, the party started witnessing splits fuelled by political ambitions.

It was Chandra Shekhar’s prime-ministerial ambition behind emergence of Samajwadi Janata Party or Mulayam Singh Yadav’s regional ambitions behind SP. Then Nitish Kumar and George Fernandes walked out with Samta Party. Lalu Yadav did his part by forming RJD in 1997. Om Prakash Chautala started his political family with Indian National Lok Dal. Nitish Kumar had one more split when he split Samta Party and formed Janata Dal (United) in 2003. Then there are more.

Since its formation, if Janata Dal has anything constant to talk about, it is its split after split at regular intervals – over a dozen and counting – splits fuelled by political ambitions.

Though Mulayam Singh Yadav has not walked out of the ‘reunited but still unnamed Janata Parivar’, he has clearly left the two parties of the new entity in Bihar. As told, he is feeling insulted and humiliated over the treatment meted out to his party in Bihar – by the political brethren of his ‘reunited Janata Parivar’.

But the real reason lies in securing the regional power centers first. The leverage that the combined entity can give in national politics comes later. If there is no regional political currency left, thinking of being a force at the national level will be nothing more than daydreaming.

UP being SP’s only power corridor, it needs to save it first, pooling and exhausting all resources to fight the wave of huge anti-incumbency to win the 2017 assembly polls. And it would avoid embarrassing and electorally sensitive elements like aligning with Lalu Yadav and Congress, the party that is its opponent in the state.

So, it was a ‘decision as per the political norms’ when he decided to walk out of the alliance in Bihar. In fact, by doing so, he can reap the benefit in a better way. SP has always been non-existent in Bihar. So, it doesn’t take the state seriously. Now, if the election returns, somehow, with better results this time, with the party again fighting on all seats, it would be a talking point for the UP assembly polls. After all, Mulayam can think of cornering some of Yadav and Muslim votes there – with increasing political isolation of Lalu Yadav (and Nitish would not like to see a politically stronger Mulayam Singh Yadav in Bihar).

Now, it is to be seen whether Sharad Yadav and Lalu Yadav become successful in brining Mulayam back into the alliance – as they are claiming.

But the development has clearly indicated one thing – and again – that Janata Dal was a loose amalgamation of different political groups which had come together to get into the power corridors and it had no ideology of its own – and every ‘satrap’ kept his political interests before the interest of combined entity. That led to its premature or early death.

In 1988, it was in the name of opposing Congress. In 2015, it is in the name of stopping BJP. In 1988, it had a combined identity, a name and symbol. In 2015, the ‘merged’ parties are still fighting elections as separate parties. In 1988, there was no political ideology to back the formation of Janata Dal. In 2015, the story remains the same.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

WHY MULAYAM SINGH YADAV WALKED OUT OF ALLIANCE IN BIHAR?

Samajwadi Party has no stake in the upcoming Bihar assembly polls. It is politically non-existent in the state.

Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal have no grounds in Uttar Pradesh where assembly elections are due in April-May 2017.

Samajwadi Party is in government in Uttar Pradesh where the party won complete majority in 2012 assembly polls and Akhilesh Yadav became state’s chief minister. But the party had humiliating loss in the last year Lok Sabha elections where it failed to win any seats outside the ruling Yadav family and had to restrict to just five seats – all won in SP’s strongholds.

Bihar has Nitish Kumar from JD (U) as its chief minister. When he had fought the last assembly elections in 2010, he was in alliance with BJP. The ruling coalition had got a thumping majority. But due to some reason (read Nitish Kumar’s ego clash with Narendra Modi, the prime-ministerial candidate of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)), he broke the alliance and fought the Lok Sabha polls alone. His party met with a big loss and was decimated to only two seats. Nitish Kumar took its moral responsibility and resigned, installing Jitan Ram Manji, a Mahadalit, as the CM. But Manjhi didn’t turn out to be the sort of puppet he was thought to be. He soon started speaking a language of his own political ambitions – giving indications of even aligning with BJP. That made Nitish uncomfortable. And finally, when Manjhi openly rebelled and declined to toe the line, the party sacked him and Nitish became the CM again – in a scramble to gain victory in the upcoming assembly polls.

In UP, it’s SP Vs them (including Congress).

In Bihar, it’s JD(U) + RJD + Congress Vs them.

And in both states, BJP is the principal opposition. It won 73 seats in UP (with allies, 2 seats) out of 80 and 31 in Bihar (with allies, 9 seats) out of 40 in the last parliamentary elections. And the party is putting its all efforts to replicate the show in the upcoming assembly polls in both states – next month in Bihar and in 20 months in UP.

These two states together share 120 of 543 parliamentary seats in India and are the heartland of Indian politics.

For BJP, winning these states would further strengthen its pan-India appeal and would provide legitimacy to its claims of being the largest political party with a nationwide acceptance. Without having strong political grounds in UP and Bihar, BJP cannot claim so – given the fact that is has been in government in both these states.

SP, JD(U) or RJD are regional parties. In spite of best of their efforts, they have failed to go out of the state they belong to. And their political sanctity and existence lie in securing that home citadel first. Yes, if the citadels are like UP and Bihar, the political nerve centres in India, its gives a big leverage in the national politics.

After parting ways with BJP, Nitish is trying hard to find the way that could win the electoral game for him. Likewise, Lalu Yadav’s compulsion to survive politically saw an ally in Nitish and they both came together. Though Congress has become politically irrelevant in Bihar, to manage caste equations, it was also taken in the alliance. And in the name of reuniting the factions of the ‘Janata Parivar’, SP also joined the bandwagon.

Even if the political realties had the potential to go the other way.

And it seems they are going the other way.

And that has made for another flip-flop by Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Nitish Kumar may win the Bihar polls but his alliance with Lalu Yadav’s party may derail the show. Lalu’s corruption taint has the potential to sully his chances. And it may threaten SP’s chances in UP as well, where there is already a huge anti-incumbency wave against Akhilesh Yadav’s government.

Also, Congress may be politically irrelevant in Bihar, but in UP, it still matters, where it won 28 seats with around 12% vote share in 2012 assembly polls. If Congress and the SP fight together in Bihar but as political rivals in UP, it would create an embarrassing situation that the party would try to avoid – because there would be no answers.

The priority (political) for SP should be saving UP first in 2017 – and focusing on Bihar, with many contradicting factors, would jeopardize efforts – because, going by UP’s electoral history and the anti-incumbency against the SP government, there are real chances that the party is going to lose the 2017 polls.

We need to see the decision of Mulayam Singh Yadav to walk out of the ‘grand alliance’ in Bihar in this context, irrespective of the reason he is speaking about.

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

THOUGHTS AFTER ‘PROPOSED’ DISPLAY OF BONHOMIE TO REVIVE JANATA DAL (1)

THE QUESTIONS

FIRST THOUGHTS ON ‘PROPOSED’ BONHOMIE TO REVIVE JANATA DAL
https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/2014/12/04/first-thoughts-on-proposed-bonhomie-to-revive-janata-dal/

1. Why the name Samajwadi Janata Dal? Only to placate the parties involved (Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal United, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal Secular, Indian National Lok Dal, Samajwadi Janata Party)!

2. Why not Janata Dal? Are the technical issues involved, if any, so nagging?  After all, irrespective of it’s political fate so far, the name is well entrenched in the Indian psyche.

3. Nitish Kumar quoted ‘ideology’ behind the unification move. If Janata Dal, formed in 1988, indeed had any ideology and if that ideology is the reason behind this latest effort, would it not be logical to come under the political symbolism of the name Janata Dal?

4. A new name, trying to get its validity from a so-called old ideology, and trying to justify the move with it – doesn’t it justify that the Janata Dal formed by V. P. Singh in October 1988 – with people from parties of different ideologies and purposes (including V . P. Singh himself) – had no ideology of it’s own and was an opportunist coming together of people to score on political front?

5. Moving on from the name, even if we go by the logic of ‘in the name of ideology’, how can it keep the parties together when it miserably failed in its original avatar?

6. Will the ‘warring’ factions (parties) of the Janata Parivar be able to put aside their differences (even if counting in the upcoming wedding of Mulayam’s nephew with Lalu’s daughter) given the fact that history of Janata Dal is replete with split after split, beginning in 1990, within two years of it’s formation, with as recent as in 2010?

7. What is the difference this time that can work in its favour?

8. Isn’t it a desperate call to survive in the Narendra Modi era of politics, that, after winning the Lok Sabha and assembly polls comprehensively, is looking poised to win Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the two states run by the ‘big daddy’ constituents of the old Janata Dal with a new name now, if at all an officially unified entity is born with its own election symbol?

9. Going with the political reality of the day, the state oriented element looks logical. But on projecting nationally, the bonhomie looks firmly fragile with three big prime-ministerial ambitions – Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav (even if he is legally forced out of active politics at the moment – yes, the daughter factor may lead him to side with Mulayam in case he is not in the race). Shouldn’t we look at the window that shows the relevance and the future of the formation in context of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar assembly polls only?

10. With just 15 Lok Sabha and 30 Rajya Sabha MPs and presence in just four states, will they be able to project the identity of the ‘unified’ or the ‘new entity’ nationally?

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey –https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/

FIRST THOUGHTS ON ‘PROPOSED’ BONHOMIE TO REVIVE JANATA DAL

THE QUESTIONS

1. Janata Dal to be revived again – a desperate call to survive or a craving to fill the void of the ideological vacuum that the numerous divisions of the party caused or a well thought political bonhomie to capitalize on the political currency of the different parties under one umbrella?

2. If a desperate call to survive in the Narendra Modi era of Indian politics, will the ‘warring’ factions of the Janata Parivar be able to put aside their differences and clash of egos, as evident so far while going by the political history of Janata Dal?

3. Would the name Janata Dal be sanctified again or would we see extended deliberations over it?

4. If intended so, if at all, how would the exercise be given an ideological makeover?

5. Before the name (or even after it), would naming the leader of the unified parties be the main contention?

6. Who would be the big daddy of all – Uttar Pradesh and Bihar? Samajwadi Party with its government in Uttar Pradesh and Janata Dal (United) with its government in Bihar are equally poised to call the shots.

7. Shouldn’t we expect a name right now as the prime-ministerial ambitions have no space to raise heads at the moment? Parliamentary elections are over four years away and BJP is on a strong pitch with complete numbers on its own.

8. What would be the immediate goal of this unified entity or the revived Janata Dal?

9. Who will be the convenor or the coordinator to manage the personalities like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar, the three names with ‘strong’ prime-ministerial ambitions or H. D. Deve Gowda, a former prime minister?

10. Would this ‘revived Janata Dal’ see further revival with more factions (or parties or people) of the erstwhile Janata Dal coming to join it?

©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/