What are the trend-setting takeaways for the 2014 General Elections campaign from the outcome of the four assembly elections held this November-December the results of which were announced on December 8 (Mizoram, being one Lok Sabha seat only, doesn’t matter for the mainstream political parties when it comes to the electoral equations and thus the political calculations to devise strategies and design campaigns).
Delhi or no Delhi – Aam Aadmi Party needs to play it down to play it longer:
Yes, AAP now needs a special mention here. Though just a regional party at the moment with just one electoral performance in Delhi in its bag, it has stirred the established notions of the current political establishment in India. Barring few, almost everyone was dismissive of the new outfit until the results came on December 8. They are now expressing their desire to learn from ‘how AAP did it’.
And yes, what a surprisingly pleasant entry it has been. A voice to the suppressed and expressed desire of political change in India!
Delhi may not have a government for the next six months with President Rule in place after the hung-assembly verdict. As the Lok Sabha polls are scheduled by April-May, holding another assembly election in Delhi should not be an issue. In fact, it should be seen as a welcome opportunity.
AAP needs to focus on consolidating its Delhi gains and should design its campaign in a way so as to not to waste its efforts and energy in widening its base out of Delhi so soon.
Widening base – for any political outfit, that is important. But AAP needs to play it differently. It needs to play down its Delhi feat until it gets comfortably in the office and starts running the show of governance comfortably as well.
It needs to prove it first in the office. Expanding from there would be the next logical step. It needs to see it does not become another AGP (Asom Gana Parishad).
Expanding beyond Delhi needs considerable resources in terms of time and finance availability. Also, demography of Delhi that made AAP the real winner of the Delhi polls is not there in the small town and hinterlands of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar or Maharashtra or any other state of the country. Also, Arvind Kejriwal is not JP. Even Anna Hazare could not be.
So, it is important for the party to set its priorities right to move further, to expand its political footprint, to design a campaign for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls (and possibly for the Delhi assembly repoll).
With Delhi as mainstay for its Lok Sabha election campaigning (and possibly for assembly seats in case of repoll), its campaign should focus on demographic pockets of the country with similarities to Delhi to expand its base.
Obviously it is going to be the urban centres first. It is going to be the people at the bottom of the pyramid, the middle-class and the youth of urban areas who are going to be in dialogue with AAP first. Once that happens across the urban pockets of the country, taking it to the small town and rural areas will follow.
But that needs time.
Watch to see an interesting trend analysis unveiling!
©/IPR: Santosh Chaubey – https://santoshchaubey.wordpress.com/